Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.6% |
Year over Year | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.1% |
Highlights
The main contributions to the jump in the annual rate came from food and non-alcoholic drink, where inflation climbed from 16.8 percent to 18.2 percent, restaurants and hotels (12.1 percent after 10.8 percent), alcohol and, clothing and footwear (8.0 percent after 6.2 percent) and other goods and services (6.7 percent after 5.9 percent). Partial offsets were provided by furniture and household goods (8.6 percent after 9.1 percent) and recreation and culture (4.1 percent after 5.0 percent).
As a result, the core CPI was up a steep 1.2 percent on the month, more than unwinding January's 0.9 percent drop and raising the underlying annual inflation rate from 5.8 percent to 6.2 percent.
Today's report will not go down well at the BoE. Given the surprising weakness of the January report, February's bounce-back may simply reflect timing issues with the data but, in any event, inflation is clearly too high. The MPC is now all the more likely to increase Bank Rate again tomorrow. The UK's ECDI currently stands at 11 and the ECDI-P at 5, both measures indicating that economic activity in general is running just slightly ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Bank of England generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index which is calculated using the European Union's Eurostat methodology so that inflation can be compared across EU member states.