| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M | 223,000 | 160,000 to 325,000 | 311,000 | 517,000 | 504,000 |
| Unemployment Rate | 3.4% | 3.4% to 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | |
| Private Payrolls - M/M | 213,000 | 180,000 to 300,000 | 265,000 | 443,000 | 386,000 |
| Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M | 10,000 | 6,000 to 15,000 | -4,000 | 19,000 | 13,000 |
| Participation Rate | 62.4% | 62.4% to 62.4% | 62.5% | 62.4% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings - M/M | 0.3% | 0.3% to 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y | 4.7% | 4.4% to 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | |
| Average Workweek | 34.6hrs | 34.5hrs to 34.6hrs | 34.5hrs | 34.7hrs | 34.6hrs |
Highlights
Nonfarm payrolls are up 311,000 in February with a downward net revision of 34,000 in the prior two months. The change is well above the consensus of up 223,000 in an Econoday survey. Private payrolls are up 265,000 and government up 46,000. Even allowing for the downward revision in January and December's payroll gains, the February report shows broad gains in employment. The first two months of 2023 averaged 408,000 job gains per month compared to 264,000 in the fourth quarter 2022
Service providers' payrolls rose 245,000 in February with solid increases in retail trade (50,100), professional and business services (45,000), healthcare (44,200), and particularly in leisure and hospitality (105,000). There is a 25,000 decline in the information sector which include a 4,000 decrease in computing infrastructure providers and a 2,400 dip in computer systems design and related services. Goods producers' payrolls are up 20,000 due to a 24,000 rise in construction. If homebuilding has slowed, the workers are finding employment in other aspects of the sector. Manufacturing payrolls are down 4,000 and mining and logging is unchanged.
Average hourly earnings are up 0.2 percent month-over-month and up 4.6 percent year-over-year. The pace of average hourly earnings is trending lower, but somewhat unevenly at an annual rate.
The unemployment rate rose 2 tenths to 3.6 percent in February. This is above the consensus of 3.4 percent in an Econoday survey. The U-6 unemployment rate is also up 2 tenths to 6.8 percent in February. The labor force increased by 419,000 with a 177,000 rise in the newly employed and a 242,000 increase in the unemployed. Since new entrants to the labor force declined 16,000 to 515,000, most of the labor force increase is in job losers which rose 223,000 to 2.752 million. The participation rate is up a tenth to 62.5 percent.
Labor remains in short supply although the rise in the unemployment rate suggests the imbalance in supply and demand is easing slightly. The slowing in wage increases is a positive in terms of wage pressures on inflation, although the annual change remains well above the Fed's 2 percent inflation target. If the February employment report isn't as strong as January's, it is still sufficient to ensure that the FOMC has no reason not to raise rates on the maximum employment side of the dual mandate.
Service providers' payrolls rose 245,000 in February with solid increases in retail trade (50,100), professional and business services (45,000), healthcare (44,200), and particularly in leisure and hospitality (105,000). There is a 25,000 decline in the information sector which include a 4,000 decrease in computing infrastructure providers and a 2,400 dip in computer systems design and related services. Goods producers' payrolls are up 20,000 due to a 24,000 rise in construction. If homebuilding has slowed, the workers are finding employment in other aspects of the sector. Manufacturing payrolls are down 4,000 and mining and logging is unchanged.
Average hourly earnings are up 0.2 percent month-over-month and up 4.6 percent year-over-year. The pace of average hourly earnings is trending lower, but somewhat unevenly at an annual rate.
The unemployment rate rose 2 tenths to 3.6 percent in February. This is above the consensus of 3.4 percent in an Econoday survey. The U-6 unemployment rate is also up 2 tenths to 6.8 percent in February. The labor force increased by 419,000 with a 177,000 rise in the newly employed and a 242,000 increase in the unemployed. Since new entrants to the labor force declined 16,000 to 515,000, most of the labor force increase is in job losers which rose 223,000 to 2.752 million. The participation rate is up a tenth to 62.5 percent.
Labor remains in short supply although the rise in the unemployment rate suggests the imbalance in supply and demand is easing slightly. The slowing in wage increases is a positive in terms of wage pressures on inflation, although the annual change remains well above the Fed's 2 percent inflation target. If the February employment report isn't as strong as January's, it is still sufficient to ensure that the FOMC has no reason not to raise rates on the maximum employment side of the dual mandate.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
A 223,000 rise is the call for nonfarm payroll growth in February versus 517,000 in January which, for the fourth month in a row, was at the top of Econoday's consensus range and in fact nearly doubled Econoday's high estimate. January, in fact, was the ninth straight month and eleventh of the last twelve that payroll growth exceeded Econoday's consensus. Average hourly earnings in February are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month to match January's rise.
Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.
Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.
Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.
Description
If ever there was an economic report that can move the markets, this is it! The anticipation on Wall Street each month is palpable, the reactions can be dramatic, and the information for investors is invaluable. By digging just a little deeper than the headline unemployment rate, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio and even take advantage of unique investment opportunities that often arise in the days surrounding this report.
The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they're getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest.
The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of opponents of easy monetary policy. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.
Importance
The employment situation is the primary monthly indicator of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses all major sectors of the economy. It is comprehensive and available early in the month. Many other economic indicators are dependent upon its information. It not only reveals information about the labor market, but about income and production as well. In short, it provides clues about other economic indicators reported for the month and plays a big role in influencing financial market psychology during the month. Additionally, the Fed has made 6.5 percent unemployment a threshold for considering changes in policy - both for quantitative easing and the fed funds rate. And the Fed has emphasized that it is overall labor market conditions that matter - not just a specific number.
Interpretation
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
Nonfarm payroll employment indicates the current level of economic activity. Increases in nonfarm payrolls translate into earnings that workers will spend on goods and services in the economy. The greater the increase in employment, the faster is the total economic growth. When the economy is in the mature phase of an expansion, rapid increases in employment cause fears of inflationary pressures if rapid demand for goods and services cannot be met by current production.
When the average workweek trends up, it supports production gains in the current period and portends additional employment increases. When the average workweek is in a declining mode, it probably is signaling a potential slowdown in employment growth-or even outright declines in employment in case of recession.
Gains in average hourly earnings represent wage pressures. It is worth noting that these figures aren't adjusted for overtime pay or shifts in the composition of the workforce, which affects wages on its own. Market participants believe that a rising trend in hourly earnings will lead to higher inflation. But if increased wages are matched by productivity gains, producers likely will not increase product prices with wages because their unit labor costs are stable.
The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they're getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest.
The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of opponents of easy monetary policy. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.
Importance
The employment situation is the primary monthly indicator of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses all major sectors of the economy. It is comprehensive and available early in the month. Many other economic indicators are dependent upon its information. It not only reveals information about the labor market, but about income and production as well. In short, it provides clues about other economic indicators reported for the month and plays a big role in influencing financial market psychology during the month. Additionally, the Fed has made 6.5 percent unemployment a threshold for considering changes in policy - both for quantitative easing and the fed funds rate. And the Fed has emphasized that it is overall labor market conditions that matter - not just a specific number.
Interpretation
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
Nonfarm payroll employment indicates the current level of economic activity. Increases in nonfarm payrolls translate into earnings that workers will spend on goods and services in the economy. The greater the increase in employment, the faster is the total economic growth. When the economy is in the mature phase of an expansion, rapid increases in employment cause fears of inflationary pressures if rapid demand for goods and services cannot be met by current production.
When the average workweek trends up, it supports production gains in the current period and portends additional employment increases. When the average workweek is in a declining mode, it probably is signaling a potential slowdown in employment growth-or even outright declines in employment in case of recession.
Gains in average hourly earnings represent wage pressures. It is worth noting that these figures aren't adjusted for overtime pay or shifts in the composition of the workforce, which affects wages on its own. Market participants believe that a rising trend in hourly earnings will lead to higher inflation. But if increased wages are matched by productivity gains, producers likely will not increase product prices with wages because their unit labor costs are stable.
