Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 25 are down 2,000 to 190,000 after no revision in the prior week. The level is below the consensus of 200,000 in an Econoday survey. The level is below the 200,000-mark for the seventh week in a row. The four-week moving average is up 1,750 to 193,000 in the February 25 week, a mild increase that does not change the underlying trend of low levels of filings for benefits. Layoffs remain few, at least for workers eligible for unemployment benefits.

The level of insured unemployment claims is down 5,000 to 1.655 million in the February 18 week, a negligible change that is consistent with a tight labor market where persons on the unemployment rolls aren't staying there very long. The insured rate of unemployment is unchanged at 1.1 percent from the prior week. It has seen little variation since early November 2022 and also speaks to a tight labor market.

Despite some reports of big layoffs particularly in the tech sector other businesses are holding on to the workforces if at all possible against a back drop of limited supply of qualified workers.

Jobless claims for the February 25 week are expected to come in at 200,000 versus an in-trend 192,000 in the prior week.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.