The CBI's latest industrial trends survey found demand falling at much the same rate as in January and a little more rapidly than anticipated. At minus 16 percent, the headline orders index was just 1 percentage point above its mark at the start of the year and a couple of percentage points short of the market consensus. Accordingly, the February reading remained slightly below its long-run average (minus 13 percent).

Past manufacturing output (minus 16 percent after minus 1 percent) declined at the fastest rate since September 2020 but is expected to rise moderately over the coming three months (7 percent after 19 percent). Production fell in 11 out of 17 sectors with the decrease led by motor vehicles and transport equipment, chemicals and paper, printing and media. Elsewhere expected selling prices (40 percent after 41 percent) were seen rising broadly in line with January and at a rate well above their historic norm (6 percent). Lastly, stocks of finished goods (9 percent after 12 percent) were seen as adequate with the balance only slightly lower than at the start of the year.

Today's report is again mixed. Output expectations are at least positive, but by less so than in January, and orders books are still soft. The results loosely mirror the PMI findings released earlier today. The UK's ECDI and ECDI-P now stand at 6 and 23 respectively, the gap between the two reflecting downside surprises in recent inflation data. As such, the February update should be seen as leaning towards only a 25 basis point hike in Bank Rate next month.

The headline balance is seen at minus 14 percent, up from minus 17 percent in January.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

Frequency
Monthly and quarterly