Highlights
Germany's goods trade surplus is forecast to have narrowed to €9.0 billion in December from €10.8 billion in November.
The Bank of England is expected to raise its key policy interest rate to 4.0 percent from 3.5 percent, keeping the pace of its tightening at 50 basis points, with an outside chance for a shift lower to 25 basis points. The BoE will announce its policy decision at 7 a.m. EST, or noon London time/GMT.
Last month, the bank's Monetary Policy Committee decided in a 6 to 3 vote to increase Bank Rate by 50 basis points. Two members preferred to maintain the rate at 3 percent and one member preferred to boost it by 75 points. The MPC predicted that the UK economy would be in recession for a prolonged period and that CPI inflation would remain very high in the near term.
At 8:15 a.m. EST (1415 CET/1315 GMT), the European Central Bank will release its monetary policy decision. The bank is expected to continue hiking its key policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.0 percent from 2.5 percent. At its last meeting on Dec. 14-15, the Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points, saying interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2 percent medium-term target.
ECB President Christine Lagarde will discuss the reasons behind the latest policy decisions at 8:45 a.m. EST (1445 CET/1345 GMT).
In the US, jobless claims for the January 28 week are expected to come in at 193,000 versus 186,000 in the prior week which, for the second week in a row, was much lower than expected.
Nonfarm productivity is forecast to rise to a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter versus growth of 0.8 percent in the third quarter. Unit labor costs, which rose 2.4 percent in the third quarter, are expected to rise to a 1.5 percent rate in the fourth quarter.
Factory orders are expected to rise 2.2 percent in December that would follow November's steep 1.8 percent drop. Durable goods orders for December, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report, surged 5.6 percent in the month on a burst of aircraft orders.
Unit vehicle sales in January are expected to rebound sharply to a 14.3 million rate from 13.3 million in December.
In South Korea, the year-over-year increase in consumer prices in January is forecast to edge marginally lower to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent in December.
In Japanese PMI data, no major revisions to the flash readings are expected. The services sector business climate continued improving in January after picking up slightly in December. The government's new travel discount program and eased Covid border control, both of which took effect in October, continued supporting the tourism industry and some retailers. The sector PMI rose to 52.4 from 51.1 in December after slipping to 50.3 in November from 53.2 in October.
The composite output PMI, which is calculated from both the manufacturing and services indexes, rose to 50.8 in January from 49.7 in December and 48.9 in November, popping just above the breakeven point of 50 after two months of contraction.
After rising more than a point to 48.0 in December, Caixin's services PMI in January is expected to rise a more sizable 3.6 points to 51.6.
The Bank of England is expected to raise its key policy interest rate to 4.0 percent from 3.5 percent, keeping the pace of its tightening at 50 basis points, with an outside chance for a shift lower to 25 basis points. The BoE will announce its policy decision at 7 a.m. EST, or noon London time/GMT.
Last month, the bank's Monetary Policy Committee decided in a 6 to 3 vote to increase Bank Rate by 50 basis points. Two members preferred to maintain the rate at 3 percent and one member preferred to boost it by 75 points. The MPC predicted that the UK economy would be in recession for a prolonged period and that CPI inflation would remain very high in the near term.
At 8:15 a.m. EST (1415 CET/1315 GMT), the European Central Bank will release its monetary policy decision. The bank is expected to continue hiking its key policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.0 percent from 2.5 percent. At its last meeting on Dec. 14-15, the Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points, saying interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2 percent medium-term target.
ECB President Christine Lagarde will discuss the reasons behind the latest policy decisions at 8:45 a.m. EST (1445 CET/1345 GMT).
In the US, jobless claims for the January 28 week are expected to come in at 193,000 versus 186,000 in the prior week which, for the second week in a row, was much lower than expected.
Nonfarm productivity is forecast to rise to a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter versus growth of 0.8 percent in the third quarter. Unit labor costs, which rose 2.4 percent in the third quarter, are expected to rise to a 1.5 percent rate in the fourth quarter.
Factory orders are expected to rise 2.2 percent in December that would follow November's steep 1.8 percent drop. Durable goods orders for December, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report, surged 5.6 percent in the month on a burst of aircraft orders.
Unit vehicle sales in January are expected to rebound sharply to a 14.3 million rate from 13.3 million in December.
In South Korea, the year-over-year increase in consumer prices in January is forecast to edge marginally lower to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent in December.
In Japanese PMI data, no major revisions to the flash readings are expected. The services sector business climate continued improving in January after picking up slightly in December. The government's new travel discount program and eased Covid border control, both of which took effect in October, continued supporting the tourism industry and some retailers. The sector PMI rose to 52.4 from 51.1 in December after slipping to 50.3 in November from 53.2 in October.
The composite output PMI, which is calculated from both the manufacturing and services indexes, rose to 50.8 in January from 49.7 in December and 48.9 in November, popping just above the breakeven point of 50 after two months of contraction.
After rising more than a point to 48.0 in December, Caixin's services PMI in January is expected to rise a more sizable 3.6 points to 51.6.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
