Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
Year over Year | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.9% |
Highlights
Consumer spending slowed in the three months to December, increasing 0.3 percent on the quarter after advancing 1.1 percent in the three months to September. Private investment fell for the third consecutive quarter and at a more pronounced rate, down 1.7 percent after dropping 0.2 percent previously, reflecting weaker spending on both construction and machinery and equipment. This was offset by a stronger growth in exports, with net trade making a positive contribution to headline GDP growth of 1.1 percentage points after making a negative contribution of 0.2 percentage points in the three months to September.
Today's data cover the period in which officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to raise policy rates aggressively in response to strong inflation pressures, with this policy tightening extended at the RBA's most recent policy meeting early February. Officials at that meeting noted that the Australian economy grew strongly over 2022 but expect growth to moderate to around 1.5 percent over 2023 and 2024. They also warned that there is uncertainty around the outlook for the global economy and the timing and extent of the expected slowdown in household spending. Despite these concerns about the growth outlook, the RBA appears likely to tighten policy further in upcoming meetings, including at their next meeting next week.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.