| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence | 109.1 | 109.1 | ||
| Manufacturing Confidence | 102.8 | 102.7 | 103.0 | 102.8 |
| Consumer Confidence | 104.0 | 100.9 | 102.7 |
Highlights
Overall business confidence was unchanged in February. At 109.1, the headline index matched its unrevised January mark, itself a 5-month high. However, the gauge was still 1.7 points short of its level just before Russia invaded Ukraine.
At a sector level, confidence was also stable in manufacturing (102.8) and so a little softer than the market consensus. Elsewhere, it was up in retail trade (114.6 after 110.6) but down in services (103.3 after 104.2) and construction (157.2 after 158.8)
At the same time, consumer confidence (104.0 after 100.9) climbed quite sharply and by more than expected to claim its best reading since February last year.
Today's update puts the Italian ECDI at minus 3 but the ECDI-P at 26. In other words, while recent inflation surprises have been on the downside, real economic activity has been running somewhat ahead of expectations.
At a sector level, confidence was also stable in manufacturing (102.8) and so a little softer than the market consensus. Elsewhere, it was up in retail trade (114.6 after 110.6) but down in services (103.3 after 104.2) and construction (157.2 after 158.8)
At the same time, consumer confidence (104.0 after 100.9) climbed quite sharply and by more than expected to claim its best reading since February last year.
Today's update puts the Italian ECDI at minus 3 but the ECDI-P at 26. In other words, while recent inflation surprises have been on the downside, real economic activity has been running somewhat ahead of expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Confidence in manufacturing is expected to improve marginally to 103.0 while its consumer counterpart rises more sharply to 102.7.
Definition
The Italian statistics office (Istat) conducts business and consumer confidence surveys over the first fifteen and ten working days of each reference month respectively. These provide information about current and expected developments in key sector variables. The largely qualitative results are synthesized for each survey into a single number that provides an overall measure of sentiment. Business confidence reflects the combined results of separate surveys covering manufacturing, retail, construction and services.
Description
If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.
