Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
HICP - M/M | -0.4% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
HICP - Y/Y | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% |
Narrow Core - M/M | -0.8% | -0.8% | 0.6% |
Narrow Core - Y/Y | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% |
Highlights
In fact, in line with December, the deceleration in the overall rate was not mirrored in the key core measures. Rather, both the narrowest gauge and the index excluding just energy and unprocessed food were also revised up 0.1 percentage point to new all-time highs of 5.3 percent and 7.1 percent respectively. More generally, the rate for non-energy industrial goods jumped from 6.4 percent to 6.7 percent while its services counterpart was flat at 4.4 percent. Energy (18.9 percent after 25.5 percent) subtracted significantly but food, alcohol and tobacco (14.1 percent after 13.8 percent) continued to provide a boost.
Regionally, the picture was very mixed, partly reflecting differences in the energy crisis support packages offered by the various member states. Hence, falls in Germany (9.2 percent after 9.6 percent) and Italy (10.7 percent after 12.3 percent) contrasted with rises in France (7.0 percent after 6.7 percent) and Spain (5.9 percent after 5.5 percent). Elsewhere, Latvia (21.4 percent) remained at the top of the inflation ladder ahead of Estonia (18.6 percent).
The stickiness of the core rates all but guarantees that the ECB will deliver on its promise to raise key interest rates by a further 50 basis points next month and probably means that there will be more to come in May. Today's update puts the Eurozone's ECDI at 5 and the ECDI-P at minus 8, both measures being close enough to zero to signal no major surprises in overall economic activity.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.