Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
Highlights
There are still no GDP expenditure components available in today's update but national growth rates amongst the larger four members were unchanged from their initial estimates. This left contractions in both Germany (0.2 percent) and Italy (0.1 percent) and modest gains in both France (0.1 percent) and Spain (0.2 percent. Elsewhere, Ireland (3.5 percent) had a very good quarter but there were sizeable falls in Lithuania (1.7 percent) and Austria (0.7 percent). Finland (minus 0.2 percent) slipped into recession, the only country to do so and reflecting the disproportionately large fallout from the war in Ukraine.
Today's data leave the Eurozone potentially on course to avoid recession in 2023. That said, near-term growth prospects remain insipid at best and another spike in energy prices could yet induce a new downturn. However, at 6 and minus 10 respectively, the region's ECDI and ECDI-P continue to signal that overall economic activity is running broadly in line with market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.