Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | -0.2% | -0.4% | 0.4% |
Year over Year | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% |
Highlights
The overall contraction was driven by a 1.0 percent drop in household spending, compounded by a 0.8 percent fall in gross fixed capital formation. Investment in machinery and equipment (minus 3.6 percent) and construction (minus 2.9 percent) were especially weak. Elsewhere, government spending (0.6 percent) provided a limited boost as did business inventories which added 0.3 percentage points. Consequently, domestic demand was down fully 0.6 percent.
Net foreign trade was broadly flat, adding only 0.1 percentage point as exports (minus 1.0 percent) fell by less than imports (minus 1.3 percent).
Although the current quarter seems to have got off to a reasonable start, the revised fourth quarter results boost the chances of a German recession and make for downside risk to the final fourth quarter Eurozone GDP report. They also trim the German ECDI to 7 and the ECDI-P to exactly zero. Both readings suggest that economic activity in general is currently moving at least broadly in line with market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.