| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | €9.0B | €10.0B | €10.8B | €10.9B |
| Imports - M/M | -6.1% | -3.3% | -3.2% | |
| Imports - Y/Y | 3.2% | 14.8% | 15.5% | |
| Exports - M/M | -6.3% | -0.3% | 0.1% | |
| Exports - Y/Y | 5.9% | 13.3% | 14.0% |
Highlights
The seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance posted a €10.0 billion surplus in December. This was down from November's €10.9 billion but above the market consensus and the second highest reading since last February. Unadjusted, the black ink stood at €9.7 billion, a €3.4 billion improvement on a year ago.
Exports were down a monthly 6.3 percent, a broad-based contraction that constituted their worst performance since April 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. Sales to the Russian Federation slumped 16.7 percent and were nearly 60 percent weaker on the year. Imports fared only slightly better, declining 6.1 percent for a fourth consecutive monthly drop. At €117.4 billion, they saw their lowest level since February 2022.
For calendar 2022, the trade balance showed a surplus of just €79.7 billion, down from €175.3 billion in 2021 and the smallest since 2000.
Today's update puts both the German ECDI and ECDI-P at 4, indicating that overall economic activity is performing much as financial markets anticipated.
Exports were down a monthly 6.3 percent, a broad-based contraction that constituted their worst performance since April 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. Sales to the Russian Federation slumped 16.7 percent and were nearly 60 percent weaker on the year. Imports fared only slightly better, declining 6.1 percent for a fourth consecutive monthly drop. At €117.4 billion, they saw their lowest level since February 2022.
For calendar 2022, the trade balance showed a surplus of just €79.7 billion, down from €175.3 billion in 2021 and the smallest since 2000.
Today's update puts both the German ECDI and ECDI-P at 4, indicating that overall economic activity is performing much as financial markets anticipated.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Germany's goods balance is expected to narrow to a €9.0 billion surplus in December versus a €10.8 billion surplus in November.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
