Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Level | 46.7 | 47.0 | 45.3 |
Highlights
As shown in the flash data, weakness was apparent in most areas of the survey with orders, output, and employment all posting outright declines. Demand was ominously soft, falling for an eighth straight month on the back of fresh setbacks in both the domestic and overseas markets. Once again, Brexit was also cited as an issue alongside, in some cases, shortages of skilled staff. Backlogs were similarly pared further and purchasing activity trimmed for a seventh successive month. Even so, business confidence was positive with 57 percent of firms expecting output to be higher over the coming year.
Inflationary developments were mixed. On the positive side, input costs rose by the least in 27 months but the good news here was tempered by a slight increase in factory gate inflation, mainly in consumer goods industries.
Despite the positive headline revision, the final January results leave a fairly miserable picture of UK manufacturing and increase the likelihood of the sector subtracting from first quarter GDP growth. As it is, with the UK's ECDI and the ECDI-P at a lowly minus 48 and minus 50 respectively, the latest data are already warning of a steeper downturn in overall economic activity than currently expected in financial markets. The BoE will still hike Bank Rate tomorrow but the split on the MPC will assuredly be very wide again.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.