ConsensusActualPrevious
Level46.747.045.3

Highlights

The final sector PMI weighed in at 47.0, up slightly from its 46.7 flash estimate and now nearly 2.0 points above December's 31-month low of 45.3. However, it remains deep in contraction territory.

As shown in the flash data, weakness was apparent in most areas of the survey with orders, output, and employment all posting outright declines. Demand was ominously soft, falling for an eighth straight month on the back of fresh setbacks in both the domestic and overseas markets. Once again, Brexit was also cited as an issue alongside, in some cases, shortages of skilled staff. Backlogs were similarly pared further and purchasing activity trimmed for a seventh successive month. Even so, business confidence was positive with 57 percent of firms expecting output to be higher over the coming year.

Inflationary developments were mixed. On the positive side, input costs rose by the least in 27 months but the good news here was tempered by a slight increase in factory gate inflation, mainly in consumer goods industries.

Despite the positive headline revision, the final January results leave a fairly miserable picture of UK manufacturing and increase the likelihood of the sector subtracting from first quarter GDP growth. As it is, with the UK's ECDI and the ECDI-P at a lowly minus 48 and minus 50 respectively, the latest data are already warning of a steeper downturn in overall economic activity than currently expected in financial markets. The BoE will still hike Bank Rate tomorrow but the split on the MPC will assuredly be very wide again.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the flash data.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The survey covers more than 600 industrial companies and is compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the and S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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