The seasonally adjusted Ivey purchasing managers index for January is up over 10 points to 60.1 after a revised 49.3 in December. It is below 64.9 in January 2022. The sharp rebound from the weakness in December is not fully reflected in the detail indexes.

The seasonally adjusted employment index rose 1 point to 60.5 in January after 59.5 in December. Inventories are down slightly to 52.7 in January after 53.9 in December. The deliveries index is up to 52.3 in January after 49.1 in December, with goods moving more quickly along the supply chain. The prices index dips to 63.6 in January after 67.5 in December and shows another welcome retreat in prices.

The unadjusted purchasing managers index is up over 14 points to 54.7 in January after 40.6 in December and is below 57.4 in January 2022. Here the detail also does not fully match up with the tone of the headline index.

Unadjusted, the index for employment in January is down to 53.9 after 54.4 in December. Inventories are up to 50.6 in January after 48.4 in December. Delivery times rose to 48.0 after in the prior month. The prices index is up nearly 2 points to 68.0 in January after 66.1 in December.

Overall, the numbers suggest improved conditions for the factory sector, but perhaps overstated by the headline indexes.

Ivey issued a notification of revision that said,"Of note, there was error in the seasonal adjustment calculations for the period of November 2020 to December 2022, where the multiplicative inverse of the seasonal adjustment factors was used. The historical data was revised on February 6, 2023, and a process has been implemented to validate seasonal adjustment calculations for the Ivey PMI."

The Ivey purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures purchasing activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the Canadian economy as a whole. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month-end data. Five categories are covered in the survey: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting).

The Ivey PMI is provided in two formats -- unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. The index shows responses to one question:"Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?" A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.

The index measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers. The index uses end of the month data and it covers all sections of Canada's economy. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.