Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Year over Year | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
Highlights
The flash HICP largely followed suit, posting a 1.0 percent monthly gain that lifted its yearly rate from 7.0 percent to 7.2 percent, now some 5.2 percentage points above the ECB's target.
Ominously too, the increase in the annual CPI rate was quite broad-based and would have been sharper but for a fall in energy (14.0 percent after 16.3 percent). Overall manufactured products (4.6 percent after 4.5 percent) were only slightly firmer but services (2.9 percent after 2.6 percent) rose by fully 0.3 percentage points while food (14.5 percent after 13.3 percent) again extended its inexorable advance. Consequently, the core rate (5.6 percent in January) probably moved up too.
The acceleration in French HICP inflation makes for upside risk to the full Eurozone report due on Thursday and confirmation of the stickiness of core prices will inevitably trouble the ECB. Today's updates put the French ECDI at 27 and the ECDI-P at 38, both measures signalling a tidy degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.