ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month1.0%0.9%0.4%
Year over Year6.2%6.2%6.0%

Highlights

Inflation accelerated in line with expectations in February. A provisional 0.9 percent monthly increase in prices saw the annual rate climb from January's final 6.0 percent to 6.2 percent, matching both the market consensus and also the recent high seen in October/November last year.

The flash HICP largely followed suit, posting a 1.0 percent monthly gain that lifted its yearly rate from 7.0 percent to 7.2 percent, now some 5.2 percentage points above the ECB's target.

Ominously too, the increase in the annual CPI rate was quite broad-based and would have been sharper but for a fall in energy (14.0 percent after 16.3 percent). Overall manufactured products (4.6 percent after 4.5 percent) were only slightly firmer but services (2.9 percent after 2.6 percent) rose by fully 0.3 percentage points while food (14.5 percent after 13.3 percent) again extended its inexorable advance. Consequently, the core rate (5.6 percent in January) probably moved up too.

The acceleration in French HICP inflation makes for upside risk to the full Eurozone report due on Thursday and confirmation of the stickiness of core prices will inevitably trouble the ECB. Today's updates put the French ECDI at 27 and the ECDI-P at 38, both measures signalling a tidy degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Inflation in February is expected to move up from 6.0 percent in January to 6.2 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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