ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.4%0.4%0.4%
Year over Year6.0%6.0%6.0%

Highlights

Inflation was unrevised in the final data for January. A final 0.4 percent monthly increase in prices matched the provisional figure and saw the annual rate edge up from December's final 5.9 percent to 6.0 percent, only 0.2 percentage points short of the October/November high.

The flash HICP was similarly unrevised and so still shows a 0.4 percent monthly gain that lifted its yearly rate from 6.7 percent to 7.0 percent, some 5.0 percentage points above the ECB's target.

Inflation in both food (13.3 percent after 12.1 percent) and energy (16.3 percent after 15.1 percent) accelerated but manufactured goods (4.5 percent after 4.6 percent) and services (2.6 percent after 2.9 percent) were slightly weaker. Even so, the core rate climbed from 5.3 percent to an ominously high 5.6 percent.

The increase in the core rate will not go down well with the ECB and so further increases the likelihood of another 50 basis point hike by the central bank next month. The January data put the French ECDI at 9 and the ECDI-P at 23. Overall economic activity is running slightly ahead of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the provisional data.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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