Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Year over Year | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
Highlights
The flash HICP was similarly unrevised and so still shows a 0.4 percent monthly gain that lifted its yearly rate from 6.7 percent to 7.0 percent, some 5.0 percentage points above the ECB's target.
Inflation in both food (13.3 percent after 12.1 percent) and energy (16.3 percent after 15.1 percent) accelerated but manufactured goods (4.5 percent after 4.6 percent) and services (2.6 percent after 2.9 percent) were slightly weaker. Even so, the core rate climbed from 5.3 percent to an ominously high 5.6 percent.
The increase in the core rate will not go down well with the ECB and so further increases the likelihood of another 50 basis point hike by the central bank next month. The January data put the French ECDI at 9 and the ECDI-P at 23. Overall economic activity is running slightly ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.