| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% |
Highlights
The labour market was a little tighter than expected last quarter. The mainland rate dipped another tick to 7.0 percent, just below the market consensus and matching its lowest level since the first quarter of 2008. At the same time, the rate including overseas territories also dropped 0.1 percentage point to 7.2 percent, now a full percentage point short of its level just before Covid-19 hit.
Including overseas territories, unemployment was down 45,000 on the quarter at 2.195 million. This was its fourth fall in the last five quarters and more than double the decline seen in the previous period. At the same time, while the overall employment rate was only unchanged, this masked a 0.2 percentage point increase in the full-time rate to 57.2 percent, its highest level on record.
In line with much of Europe, the French labour market remains tight despite sluggish domestic growth. This is a big worry for the ECB. However, more generally, today's report puts the French ECDI and ECDI-P at 2 and 10 respectively, essentially indicating that surprises in overall economic activity are currently only very modestly on the upside.
Including overseas territories, unemployment was down 45,000 on the quarter at 2.195 million. This was its fourth fall in the last five quarters and more than double the decline seen in the previous period. At the same time, while the overall employment rate was only unchanged, this masked a 0.2 percentage point increase in the full-time rate to 57.2 percent, its highest level on record.
In line with much of Europe, the French labour market remains tight despite sluggish domestic growth. This is a big worry for the ECB. However, more generally, today's report puts the French ECDI and ECDI-P at 2 and 10 respectively, essentially indicating that surprises in overall economic activity are currently only very modestly on the upside.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The fourth quarter mainland jobless rate is seen unchanged at 7.1 percent.
Definition
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. It is based on the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition of unemployment, which excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are looking for work and are available for work. The report contains data on both total joblessness and just mainland unemployment; the latter is regarded as the more significant.
Description
The data report the number of unemployed persons (quarterly average) for metropolitan France and for metropolitan France plus overseas departments. The metropolitan measure is regarded as the more useful guide.
The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.
The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.
