| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales - M/M | 1.7% | 0.3% to 2.3% | 3.0% | -1.1% | |
| Ex-Vehicles - M/M | 0.7% | 0.3% to 1.0% | 2.3% | -1.1% | -0.9% |
| Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M | 0.6% | 0.2% to 0.7% | 2.6% | -0.7% | -0.4% |
Highlights
Retail and food sales rose 3.0 percent in January after falling 1.1 percent in December and November. The January increase is well above the consensus of up 1.7 percent in an Econoday survey. Sales got a boost from a 5.9 percent jump in the dollar value of sales of motor vehicles and parts. Excluding motor vehicles, sales are up 2.3 percent. This is still a strong increase compared to market expectations.
The flat reading for gasoline sales in January is a surprise given the increase in prices at the pump, but consumers may simply have been driving less after the holiday period. Sales excluding gasoline only are up 3.2 percent month-over-month in January, while sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline are up 2.6 percent.
Spending on building materials is up 0.3 percent in January with outdoor activity limited and home repair likely taking a break until spring.
Spending at nonstore retailers is up 1.3 percent in January from February. Some of this is higher costs for things like home heating fuels. However, it seems that consumers returned to online shopping to capture some post-holiday sales items. Miscellaneous store retailers also had a good January with an increase of 2.8 percent from the prior month. The uptick in home buying may have contributed to a 4.4 percent rise in sales of furniture and home furnishings.
Electronics also did well with an increase of 3.5 percent in January sales. Consumers are dining out more with a 7.2 percent rise at food services and drinking places where not all of this is higher menu prices. Grocery store spending is up only 0.1 percent compared to the prior month. However, the real surprise is a 17.5 percent gain in department stores. Consumers may have been particularly active stocking up on winter merchandise clearances.
The January report on retail and food services gets personal consumption expenditures off to a roaring start in the first quarter 2023. It remains to be seen how much spending will hold up into February and March when tax refunds begin to arrive.
The flat reading for gasoline sales in January is a surprise given the increase in prices at the pump, but consumers may simply have been driving less after the holiday period. Sales excluding gasoline only are up 3.2 percent month-over-month in January, while sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline are up 2.6 percent.
Spending on building materials is up 0.3 percent in January with outdoor activity limited and home repair likely taking a break until spring.
Spending at nonstore retailers is up 1.3 percent in January from February. Some of this is higher costs for things like home heating fuels. However, it seems that consumers returned to online shopping to capture some post-holiday sales items. Miscellaneous store retailers also had a good January with an increase of 2.8 percent from the prior month. The uptick in home buying may have contributed to a 4.4 percent rise in sales of furniture and home furnishings.
Electronics also did well with an increase of 3.5 percent in January sales. Consumers are dining out more with a 7.2 percent rise at food services and drinking places where not all of this is higher menu prices. Grocery store spending is up only 0.1 percent compared to the prior month. However, the real surprise is a 17.5 percent gain in department stores. Consumers may have been particularly active stocking up on winter merchandise clearances.
The January report on retail and food services gets personal consumption expenditures off to a roaring start in the first quarter 2023. It remains to be seen how much spending will hold up into February and March when tax refunds begin to arrive.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales contractions in the heavy holiday months of November and December were deeper than expected, at 1.0 and 1.1 percent respectively. January, which by contrast is the lightest sales month of the year, is expected to rebound 1.7 percent, driven especially by vehicles.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. Of special attention is the control group; this is an input into the consumer spending component of GDP and excludes food services, autos, gasoline and building materials.
Description
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know how the consumer sector is faring, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth becomes excessive and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005. By 2007, the credit crunch was well underway and starting to undermine growth in consumer spending. Later in 2008 and 2009, the rise in unemployment and loss of income during the recession also cut into retail sales. Spending rebounded in 2010 and 2011 but was constrained by lingering high unemployment.
Importance
Retail sales are a major indicator of consumer spending trends because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity. The control group for retail sales (which excludes restaurants, vehicles, gasoline and building materials) is an input into GDP and offers a narrower look at nondiscretionary spending.
Interpretation
Strong retail sales are bearish for the bond market, but favorable for the stock market, particularly retail stocks. Sluggish retail sales could lead to a bond market rally, but will probably be bearish for the stock market.
Retail sales are subject to substantial month-to-month variability. In order to provide a more accurate picture of the consumer spending trend, follow the three-month moving average of the monthly percent changes or the year-over-year percent change. Retail sales are also subject to substantial monthly revisions, which makes it more difficult to discern the underlying trend. This problem underscores the need to monitor the moving average rather than just the latest one month of data.
In an attempt to avoid the more extreme volatility, economists and financial market participants monitor retail sales less autos (actually less auto dealers which include trucks, too.) Motor vehicle sales are excluded not because they are irrelevant, but because they fluctuate more than overall retail sales. In recent years, many analysts consider the core series to be total less autos and less gasoline service station sales. The latter is volatile due to swings in oil and gasoline prices.
Price changes affect the real value of retail sales. Watch for changes in food and energy prices which could affect two large components among nondurable goods stores: food stores and gasoline service stations. Large declines in food or energy prices could lead to declines in store sales which are due to price, not volume. This would mean that real sales were stronger than nominal dollar sales.
Since economic performance depend on real, rather than nominal growth rates, compare the trend growth rate in retail sales to that in the CPI for commodities.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth becomes excessive and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005. By 2007, the credit crunch was well underway and starting to undermine growth in consumer spending. Later in 2008 and 2009, the rise in unemployment and loss of income during the recession also cut into retail sales. Spending rebounded in 2010 and 2011 but was constrained by lingering high unemployment.
Importance
Retail sales are a major indicator of consumer spending trends because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity. The control group for retail sales (which excludes restaurants, vehicles, gasoline and building materials) is an input into GDP and offers a narrower look at nondiscretionary spending.
Interpretation
Strong retail sales are bearish for the bond market, but favorable for the stock market, particularly retail stocks. Sluggish retail sales could lead to a bond market rally, but will probably be bearish for the stock market.
Retail sales are subject to substantial month-to-month variability. In order to provide a more accurate picture of the consumer spending trend, follow the three-month moving average of the monthly percent changes or the year-over-year percent change. Retail sales are also subject to substantial monthly revisions, which makes it more difficult to discern the underlying trend. This problem underscores the need to monitor the moving average rather than just the latest one month of data.
In an attempt to avoid the more extreme volatility, economists and financial market participants monitor retail sales less autos (actually less auto dealers which include trucks, too.) Motor vehicle sales are excluded not because they are irrelevant, but because they fluctuate more than overall retail sales. In recent years, many analysts consider the core series to be total less autos and less gasoline service station sales. The latter is volatile due to swings in oil and gasoline prices.
Price changes affect the real value of retail sales. Watch for changes in food and energy prices which could affect two large components among nondurable goods stores: food stores and gasoline service stations. Large declines in food or energy prices could lead to declines in store sales which are due to price, not volume. This would mean that real sales were stronger than nominal dollar sales.
Since economic performance depend on real, rather than nominal growth rates, compare the trend growth rate in retail sales to that in the CPI for commodities.
