| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Prices - M/M | -0.1% | -0.2% to 0.3% | -0.2% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| Import Prices - Y/Y | 0.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | ||
| Export Prices - M/M | -0.2% | -1.2% to 0.0% | 0.8% | -2.6% | -3.2% |
| Export Prices - Y/Y | 2.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% |
Highlights
The import price index for January is down 0.2 percent from December after a downward revision to down 0.1 percent in December. The reading is slightly below the consensus of down 0.1 percent in an Econoday survey. Compared to a year ago, the January index is up 0.8 percent, a significantly slower year-over-year pace than the up 3.0 percent in December.
The decrease is largely due to a 4.9 percent decrease in the index for fuel imports in January. The index for fuel imports is up only 0.4 percent compared to a year ago. The nonfuel import price index is up 0.3 percent month-over-month and up 0.8 percent year-over-year.
The index for imported foods, feeds, and beverages is up 1.3 percent in January from December and up 2.3 percent from January 2022. Prices for industrial supplies and materials are down 2.0 percent in January from the prior month and 1.7 percent lower than a year ago. However, prices for imported industrial supplies and materials excluding fuels are off only 0.2 percent in January from December, and down 2.6 percent from a year ago.
Prices for finished imported goods continue to rise. The index for imported capital goods is up 0.3 percent in January from December and up 2.5 percent year-over-year. The index for automotive vehicles is up 0.6 percent month-over-month and 2.9 percent higher than January 2022. Consumer goods excluding autos are up 0.2 percent in January from the prior month and up only 0.3 percent year-over-year.
The export price index for January is up 0.8 percent from December, the first rise after six months of declines. The increase is above the consensus expectation of down 0.2 percent in an Econoday survey. The export price index is up 2.3 percent year-over-year in January.
The price index for agricultural exports is down 0.2 percent in January from December and up 5.8 percent year-over-year. Nonagricultural exports are up 0.8 percent month-over-month and up 1.7 percent year-over-year. Nonagricultural exports of industrial supplies and materials are up 0.8 percent in January for the first increase since June 2022. In part this was due to a 2.4 percent rise in the index for exported fuels and lubricants.
The import and export price data do not cover the cost of services with the exception of air passenger travel and freight. The cost of shipping goods in by air was a major source of inflation in goods prices. This has eased considerably in recent months.
The index for import air freight is down 11.2 percent in January from December and 34.7 percent below this time last year. The index for export air freight is up 1.8 percent in January from December, and up 1.0 percent year-over-year. This will help manufacturing, wholesale, and retail businesses to smooth the supply chain and relieve price pressures.
However, the relief is less obvious in the indexes for passenger air costs. The index for import air passengers is down 12.4 percent in January from December, but is up 23.2 percent compared to January 2022. With only two still-sizeable exceptions, the year-over-year pace of increases has remained in the double-digits since March 2022. Export prices for air passenger travel is up 0.8 percent month-over-month in January and 7.0 percent higher compared to January 2022.
The decrease is largely due to a 4.9 percent decrease in the index for fuel imports in January. The index for fuel imports is up only 0.4 percent compared to a year ago. The nonfuel import price index is up 0.3 percent month-over-month and up 0.8 percent year-over-year.
The index for imported foods, feeds, and beverages is up 1.3 percent in January from December and up 2.3 percent from January 2022. Prices for industrial supplies and materials are down 2.0 percent in January from the prior month and 1.7 percent lower than a year ago. However, prices for imported industrial supplies and materials excluding fuels are off only 0.2 percent in January from December, and down 2.6 percent from a year ago.
Prices for finished imported goods continue to rise. The index for imported capital goods is up 0.3 percent in January from December and up 2.5 percent year-over-year. The index for automotive vehicles is up 0.6 percent month-over-month and 2.9 percent higher than January 2022. Consumer goods excluding autos are up 0.2 percent in January from the prior month and up only 0.3 percent year-over-year.
The export price index for January is up 0.8 percent from December, the first rise after six months of declines. The increase is above the consensus expectation of down 0.2 percent in an Econoday survey. The export price index is up 2.3 percent year-over-year in January.
The price index for agricultural exports is down 0.2 percent in January from December and up 5.8 percent year-over-year. Nonagricultural exports are up 0.8 percent month-over-month and up 1.7 percent year-over-year. Nonagricultural exports of industrial supplies and materials are up 0.8 percent in January for the first increase since June 2022. In part this was due to a 2.4 percent rise in the index for exported fuels and lubricants.
The import and export price data do not cover the cost of services with the exception of air passenger travel and freight. The cost of shipping goods in by air was a major source of inflation in goods prices. This has eased considerably in recent months.
The index for import air freight is down 11.2 percent in January from December and 34.7 percent below this time last year. The index for export air freight is up 1.8 percent in January from December, and up 1.0 percent year-over-year. This will help manufacturing, wholesale, and retail businesses to smooth the supply chain and relieve price pressures.
However, the relief is less obvious in the indexes for passenger air costs. The index for import air passengers is down 12.4 percent in January from December, but is up 23.2 percent compared to January 2022. With only two still-sizeable exceptions, the year-over-year pace of increases has remained in the double-digits since March 2022. Export prices for air passenger travel is up 0.8 percent month-over-month in January and 7.0 percent higher compared to January 2022.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices are expected to fall 0.1 percent on the month in January following a 0.4 percent rebound in December. Export prices, which in contrast to imports fell a very sharp 2.6 percent in December, are expected to fall 0.2 percent.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
