Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Change | 25bp | 25bp | 50bp |
Federal Funds Rate - Target Range | 4.50 to 4.75% | 4.50 to 4.75% | 4.25 to 4.50% |
Highlights
The FOMC indicated that,"Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated," and excised language about supply and demand imbalances used in the prior statement.
The statement revised the language around the war against Ukraine. Mainly, the war is now said to contribute to"elevated global uncertainty". The statement repeated,"The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks."
There was a small, but telling change in the portion of the statement related to the change in rates. The statement now talks of determining the"extent" rather than"pace" of future rate increases. The new wording encompasses more than just the speed with which rate increases are anticipated to happen, but also how much higher rates will go.
One other minor change to note is that among the conditions the FOMC will take into consideration in setting policy, it no longer includes public health.
There are no dissents among the new rotation of voters at this meeting.
In addition to the 25 basis point hike in the fed funds rate target, there were similar increases in the discount rate to 4.75 percent, interest on reserve balances to 4.65 percent, and the overnight reverse repurchases offer rate to 4.55 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The interest rate set by the Fed, the federal funds rate, serves as a benchmark for all other rates. A change in the fed funds rate, the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, translates directly through to all other interest rates from Treasury bonds to mortgage loans. It also changes the dynamics of competition for investor dollars. When bonds yield 5 percent, they will attract more money away from stocks than when they only yield 3 percent.
The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, fewer homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the stock market, while lower interest rates are bullish.
The Fed also began quantitative easing during the past recession and, through direct purchases in the market, steadily increased its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-back securities before pulling back from the program beginning in late 2017. Along with lowering its bond holdings, the Fed began to gradually raise its federal funds target until mid-2019 when, facing slowing global growth, it began to lower its target.
Frequency
Eight times a year.