The CBI's latest industrial trends survey found demand falling more quickly than anticipated in January. At minus 17 percent, the headline orders index was 9 percentage points short of the market consensus and 11 percentage points below its December reading. This was its fourth consecutive deterioration and its lowest outturn since last August. It was also beneath its long-run average (minus 13 percent).

Past manufacturing output (minus 1 percent after minus 9 percent) was broadly flat but is expected to rise sharply over the coming three months (19 percent after minus 10 percent). Supply-side constraints remain historically significant, but have eased: shortages of skilled labour improved (38 percent after 49 percent) as did shortages of materials/components (44 percent after 54 percent). Elsewhere average cost growth (64 percent after 82 percent) was less marked but also still very high and expected selling prices (41 percent after 52 percent) followed suit.

Today's report is mixed and probably best summed up in overall business sentiment (minus 5 percent after minus 48 percent) which deteriorated for a fifth successive quarter but at a much slower rate than in October. The UK's ECDI and ECDI-P now stand at minus 38 and minus 44 respectively, clearly indicating underperformance by economic activity in general. However, on balance, there is not enough weakness here - particularly regarding costs and prices - to stop the BoE raising Bank Rate again next week.

The headline index is seen at minus 8 percent, down from minus 6 percent in December.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

Frequency
Monthly and quarterly