ConsensusActualPrevious
CPI - Y/Y7.3%7.3%6.9%

Highlights

Monthly CPI data show that headline inflation rose from 6.9 percent in October to 7.3 percent in November, in line with the consensus forecast. Underlying measures of inflation also picked up, with the trimmed mean measure advancing from 5.4 percent to 5.6 percent and the measure excluding volatile items increasing from 6.4 percent to 6.7 percent. Officials at Reserve Bank of Australia forecast headline inflation to have peaked around the end of 2022 and expect it will moderate over 2023.

The increase in headline inflation in November was largely driven by food prices, up 9.4 percent on the year after increasing 8.9 percent previously. Prices for transport, recreation and culture, and health also rose at a faster pace. This was partly offset by smaller year-over-year price increases for housing as well as clothing and footwear.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Consensus for consumer prices in November are expected to rise to a year-over-year 7.3 percent versus 6.9 percent in October.

Definition

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services. In Australia, the CPI measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services, acquired by household consumers who are residents in the eight State/Territory capital cities. (Darwin, Perth, Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide).

Data are released quarterly and, since 2022, monthly. Quarterly inflation data measure the year-over-year change in the index relative to the same quarter twelve months previously. Monthly inflation data measure the year-over-year change in the index relative to the same month twelve months previously.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Australia, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.

For monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index. It has an inflation target of 2 percent to 3 percent. The RBA also has two preferred core or analytical measures - the weighted and trimmed means. The trimmed mean is a method of averaging that removes a small percentage of the largest and smallest values before calculating the mean. After removing the specified observations, the trimmed mean is found using an arithmetic averaging formula. The weighted mean excludes certain items from the CPI basket (the exclusion approach). Typically, the excluded items are those that are volatile and/or display pronounced seasonal patterns, and those that are subject to administrative price setting.
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