| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence | 109.1 | 107.8 | 107.9 | |
| Manufacturing Confidence | 102.7 | 101.4 | 101.5 | 101.8 |
| Consumer Confidence | 100.9 | 102.5 | 102.7 |
Highlights
Overall business confidence strengthened at the start of the year. From a marginally stronger revised 107.9 in December, Istat's sentiment gauge rose to 109.1, a 5-month high and now less than 2 points short of the 110.9 seen just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
At a sector level, confidence improved by more than expected in manufacturing (102.7 after 101.5) which also posted its best reading since last August. Elsewhere, morale was up in services (104.2 after 102.4) and construction (158.8 after 156.6) but down in retail trade (110.3 after 112.4).
At the same time, consumer confidence (100.9 after 102.5) similarly deteriorated and now stands 11.5 points below its level in February 2022.
Today's somewhat mixed update puts the Italian ECDI at minus 4 and the ECDI-P at 6. Both readings are close enough to zero to indicate that overall economic activity is performing much as expected.
At a sector level, confidence improved by more than expected in manufacturing (102.7 after 101.5) which also posted its best reading since last August. Elsewhere, morale was up in services (104.2 after 102.4) and construction (158.8 after 156.6) but down in retail trade (110.3 after 112.4).
At the same time, consumer confidence (100.9 after 102.5) similarly deteriorated and now stands 11.5 points below its level in February 2022.
Today's somewhat mixed update puts the Italian ECDI at minus 4 and the ECDI-P at 6. Both readings are close enough to zero to indicate that overall economic activity is performing much as expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
January manufacturing confidence is expected to firm slightly to 101.8 while consumer confidence is expected to rise to 102.7.
Definition
The Italian statistics office (Istat) conducts business and consumer confidence surveys over the first fifteen and ten working days of each reference month respectively. These provide information about current and expected developments in key sector variables. The largely qualitative results are synthesized for each survey into a single number that provides an overall measure of sentiment. Business confidence reflects the combined results of separate surveys covering manufacturing, retail, construction and services.
Description
If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.
