| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.3% | 0.8% | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| Year over Year | 4.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
Highlights
Retailers had a surprisingly good November. Having seen sales fall a shallower revised 0.3 percent on the month in October, purchases rose 0.8 percent, much stronger than the market consensus. The increase was the largest since July and lifted unadjusted annual growth from 1.2 percent to 4.4 percent.
Volumes were weaker, rising only 0.4 percent and reversing just a portion of October's 1.2 percent decline. This was their first advance in four months and reflected a 0.7 percent increase in non-food demand as purchases of food was flat. Annual growth climbed from minus 6.4 percent to minus 3.6 percent.
Despite November's improvement, average total volume sales in the first two months of the quarter stand 1.5 percent below the third quarter mean and, ignoring any revisions, December will need a 4.4 percent monthly jump just to keep the quarter flat. As such, the retail sector looks very likely to have subtracted from GDP growth at year-end. Even so, activity in general continues to be a little firmer than expected both the Italian ECDI (2) and ECDI-P (13) remain in positive surprise territory.
Volumes were weaker, rising only 0.4 percent and reversing just a portion of October's 1.2 percent decline. This was their first advance in four months and reflected a 0.7 percent increase in non-food demand as purchases of food was flat. Annual growth climbed from minus 6.4 percent to minus 3.6 percent.
Despite November's improvement, average total volume sales in the first two months of the quarter stand 1.5 percent below the third quarter mean and, ignoring any revisions, December will need a 4.4 percent monthly jump just to keep the quarter flat. As such, the retail sector looks very likely to have subtracted from GDP growth at year-end. Even so, activity in general continues to be a little firmer than expected both the Italian ECDI (2) and ECDI-P (13) remain in positive surprise territory.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales are expected to fall a further 0.3 percent on the month in November.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are expressed in nominal terms but volume statistics are also available. Autos are excluded. Only a very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the first report but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is the main producer of official statistics in Italy.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
