| U.S. Grain Stocks (1000 Bushels) | ||||||
| 2021 | 2022 | |||||
| On Farms | Off Farms | Total | On Farms | Off Farms | Total | |
| Corn | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 4,036,500 | 3,659,648 | 7,696,148 | 4,080,000 | 3,678,036 | 7,758,036 |
| Jun 1 | 1,743,600 | 2,367,581 | 4,111,181 | 2,120,700 | 2,228,268 | 4,348,968 |
| Sep 1 | 394,900 | 839,612 | 1,234,512 | 509,500 | 867,390 | 1,376,890 |
| Dec 1 | 7,234,000 | 4,407,181 | 11,641,181 | 6,748,000 | 4,061,350 | 10,809,350 |
| All Wheat | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 283,920 | 1,026,870 | 1,310,790 | 174,410 | 854,758 | 1,029,168 |
| Jun 1 | 141,655 | 703,496 | 845,151 | 92,965 | 605,466 | 698,431 |
| Sep 1 | 419,190 | 1,354,347 | 1,773,537 | 591,130 | 1,186,719 | 1,777,849 |
| Dec 1 | 273,290 | 1,103,873 | 1,377,163 | 361,900 | 918,269 | 1,280,169 |
| Soybeans | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 594,000 | 967,684 | 1,561,684 | 750,000 | 1,181,817 | 1,931,817 |
| Jun 1 | 219,900 | 549,140 | 769,040 | 331,400 | 636,125 | 967,525 |
| Sep 1 | 68,100 | 188,879 | 256,979 | 62,930 | 211,464 | 274,394 |
| Dec 1 | 1,522,000 | 1,614,524 | 3,136,524 | 1,477,000 | 1,545,044 | 3,022,044 |
| USDA December 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks Pre-Report Estimates | ||||
| Estimates | ||||
| Hightower | Low | High | Last Year | |
| Corn | 11,173 | 10,737 | 11,937 | 11,642 |
| Soybeans | 3,162 | 3,088 | 3,466 | 3,152 |
| Wheat | 1,339 | 1,213 | 1,429 | 1,378 |
Highlights
SOYBEANS:
US soybean ending stocks for 2022/23 came in at 210 million bushels versus an average expectation of 233 million and a range of expectations from 200 to 270 million. This was down from the 220 million in the December report. Production came in at 4.276 billion bushels versus 4.357 billion expected (4.321?4.400 billion range) and 4.346 billion in December. Yield came at 49.5 bushels per acre versus 50.3 expected (range 49.9-50.8) and 50.2 in December. In addition, harvested acres were revised down by 300,000 acres. December 1 US soybean stocks came in 3.022 billion bushels versus 3.162 billion expected (range 3.088-3.466 billion) and 3.152 billion on December 1, 2021. World 2022/23 soybean ending stocks came in at 103.52 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 101.5 million (range 99.1?104.4 million) and 102.7 million in December. Brazilian production came in at 153 million tonnes versus 152.4 million expected and 152.0 million in December. Argentine production came in at 45.50 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 46.5 million (range 44.5-49.5 million). This was down from 49.5 million in December.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The USDA report news was bullish against trade expectations. US ending stocks came in below trade expectations and final US production came in well below trade expectations and even below the low end of the range of estimates. December 1 stocks came in below the low end of trade expectations as well. March Soybean support is at 1509 3/4, with 1537 1/2 and 1565 as the next upside targets.
CORN:
US corn ending stocks for 2022/23 came in at 1.242 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 1.314 billion and a range of expectations from 1.181 to 1.400 billion. This was down from 1.257 billion in the December report. Production came in at 13.730 billion bushels versus 13.936 billion expected (13.870 to 14.005 range) and 13.930 billion in the December report. Yield came at 173.3 bushels per acre versus 172.5 expected (range 171.9-173.9) and 172.3 in December. Harvested acreage was revised down by 1.6 million acres, which more than offset the higher yield number. December 1 corn stocks came in 10.809 billion bushels versus 11.173 billion expected (range 10.737-11.937) and 11.642 billion on December 1, 2021. World ending stocks for 2022/23 came in a 296.42 million tonnes versus 297.7 million expected (range 292.5-300.3) and 298.4 million in the December report. Brazilian production came in at 125 million tonnes versus 126.4 million expected and 126.0 million in December. Argentine production came in at 52 million tonnes versus 51.6 million expected (range 49.0-54.0 million and 55.0 million in December.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The report news was very bullish, as US ending stocks came in well below trade expectations and US production was revised down below the low end of trade expectations due to a drop in harvested acres. December 1 stocks came in near the low end of trade expectations as well. March Corn support is now at 659, with resistance at 673 1/4 and 682 1/4. Clearing resistance would suggest a test of the October 10 high at 711 3/4.
WHEAT:
US 2022/23 wheat ending stocks came in at 567 million bushels versus an average trade expectation of 581 million (range 556 to 601 million) and 571 million in the December report. World ending stocks came in at 268.39 million tonnes versus 268.3 million expected (range 265.4-275.0 million) and 267.3 million in November. US December 1, 2022 wheat stocks came in at 1.280 billion bushels versus 1.339 billion expected (range 1.213-1.429 billion) and 1.378 billion on December 1, 2021. US 2023 winter wheat seedings came in at 36.950 million acres versus an average estimate of 34.5 million (range 33.2-36.2 million) and 33.3 million for 2022. Hard red winter wheat seedings came in 25.3 million acres versus a 23.9 million expected (range 23.0?25.0). Soft red seedings came in at 7.90 million acres versus 6.9 million expected (6.5?7.6 range). White wheat seedings came in at 3.73 million acres versus 3.7 million expected (3.5?7.0 range)
PRICE OUTLOOK: While US and world 2022/23 ending stocks and December 1 US stocks came in below expectations, that was more than offset by the sharp increase in US 2023 planted acreage, which came in well above trade expectations and above the high end of the range. Other grains and other commodity markets are higher today, which might provide some support. Resistance for March Wheat is at 750 1/2 and 759 3/4, with 694 3/4 as the next downside technical target after the breakout on Tuesday.
US soybean ending stocks for 2022/23 came in at 210 million bushels versus an average expectation of 233 million and a range of expectations from 200 to 270 million. This was down from the 220 million in the December report. Production came in at 4.276 billion bushels versus 4.357 billion expected (4.321?4.400 billion range) and 4.346 billion in December. Yield came at 49.5 bushels per acre versus 50.3 expected (range 49.9-50.8) and 50.2 in December. In addition, harvested acres were revised down by 300,000 acres. December 1 US soybean stocks came in 3.022 billion bushels versus 3.162 billion expected (range 3.088-3.466 billion) and 3.152 billion on December 1, 2021. World 2022/23 soybean ending stocks came in at 103.52 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 101.5 million (range 99.1?104.4 million) and 102.7 million in December. Brazilian production came in at 153 million tonnes versus 152.4 million expected and 152.0 million in December. Argentine production came in at 45.50 million tonnes versus an average expectation of 46.5 million (range 44.5-49.5 million). This was down from 49.5 million in December.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The USDA report news was bullish against trade expectations. US ending stocks came in below trade expectations and final US production came in well below trade expectations and even below the low end of the range of estimates. December 1 stocks came in below the low end of trade expectations as well. March Soybean support is at 1509 3/4, with 1537 1/2 and 1565 as the next upside targets.
CORN:
US corn ending stocks for 2022/23 came in at 1.242 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 1.314 billion and a range of expectations from 1.181 to 1.400 billion. This was down from 1.257 billion in the December report. Production came in at 13.730 billion bushels versus 13.936 billion expected (13.870 to 14.005 range) and 13.930 billion in the December report. Yield came at 173.3 bushels per acre versus 172.5 expected (range 171.9-173.9) and 172.3 in December. Harvested acreage was revised down by 1.6 million acres, which more than offset the higher yield number. December 1 corn stocks came in 10.809 billion bushels versus 11.173 billion expected (range 10.737-11.937) and 11.642 billion on December 1, 2021. World ending stocks for 2022/23 came in a 296.42 million tonnes versus 297.7 million expected (range 292.5-300.3) and 298.4 million in the December report. Brazilian production came in at 125 million tonnes versus 126.4 million expected and 126.0 million in December. Argentine production came in at 52 million tonnes versus 51.6 million expected (range 49.0-54.0 million and 55.0 million in December.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The report news was very bullish, as US ending stocks came in well below trade expectations and US production was revised down below the low end of trade expectations due to a drop in harvested acres. December 1 stocks came in near the low end of trade expectations as well. March Corn support is now at 659, with resistance at 673 1/4 and 682 1/4. Clearing resistance would suggest a test of the October 10 high at 711 3/4.
WHEAT:
US 2022/23 wheat ending stocks came in at 567 million bushels versus an average trade expectation of 581 million (range 556 to 601 million) and 571 million in the December report. World ending stocks came in at 268.39 million tonnes versus 268.3 million expected (range 265.4-275.0 million) and 267.3 million in November. US December 1, 2022 wheat stocks came in at 1.280 billion bushels versus 1.339 billion expected (range 1.213-1.429 billion) and 1.378 billion on December 1, 2021. US 2023 winter wheat seedings came in at 36.950 million acres versus an average estimate of 34.5 million (range 33.2-36.2 million) and 33.3 million for 2022. Hard red winter wheat seedings came in 25.3 million acres versus a 23.9 million expected (range 23.0?25.0). Soft red seedings came in at 7.90 million acres versus 6.9 million expected (6.5?7.6 range). White wheat seedings came in at 3.73 million acres versus 3.7 million expected (3.5?7.0 range)
PRICE OUTLOOK: While US and world 2022/23 ending stocks and December 1 US stocks came in below expectations, that was more than offset by the sharp increase in US 2023 planted acreage, which came in well above trade expectations and above the high end of the range. Other grains and other commodity markets are higher today, which might provide some support. Resistance for March Wheat is at 750 1/2 and 759 3/4, with 694 3/4 as the next downside technical target after the breakout on Tuesday.
Definition
This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.
Description
Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.
September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.
The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.
The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.
September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.
The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.
The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.
