| Recent History | |||||||
| On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
| Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
| Jul-22 | 11.340 | 100.4% | 1.764 | 101.8% | 1.824 | 96.1% | 6.237 |
| Aug-22 | 11.224 | 101.4% | 2.115 | 100.6% | 2.004 | 106.4% | 6.168 |
| Sep-22 | 11.282 | 100.4% | 2.085 | 96.4% | 1.860 | 104.0% | 5.952 |
| Oct-22 | 11.454 | 99.2% | 2.100 | 93.5% | 1.804 | 100.7% | 5.652 |
| Nov-22 | 11.696 | 97.9% | 1.925 | 97.9% | 1.891 | 101.2% | 5.556 |
| Dec-22 | 11.673 | 97.4% | 1.804 | 92.0% | 1.741 | 93.9% | 5.727 |
| Jan-23 | 11.682 | 97.1% | - | - | - | - | 6.018 |
| Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
| Estimates | |||||
| As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| On Feed | Jan | 96.8% | 96.5% | 97.4% | 100.6% |
| Placements | Dec | 91.2% | 89.0% | 94.4% | 106.3% |
| Marketings | Dec | 94.7% | 94.0% | 96.2% | 100.1% |
Highlights
The USDA pegged Jan-23 cattle on feed supply at 97.1% of last year. Placements during Dec-22 came in at 92.0% of last year and Marketings were 93.9% of last year.
The USDA Cattle on Feed report showed placements for the month of December at 92% versus trade expectations for 91% of a year ago with a range of 89.0-94.4 range. Marketings came in at 93.9% of last year as compared with the average estimate of 94.7%, 94.0-96.2 range. The Cattle on Feed supply as of December 1st came in at 97.1% as compared with trade expectations for 96.8% of last year with a range of 96.5% to 97.4%.
Analysis: A combination of slower than expected cattle marketings and placements not down quite as much as expected leaves a bearish tilt to the report. The break this week helped to correct the overbought condition. Look for some weakness early Monday.
The USDA Cattle on Feed report showed placements for the month of December at 92% versus trade expectations for 91% of a year ago with a range of 89.0-94.4 range. Marketings came in at 93.9% of last year as compared with the average estimate of 94.7%, 94.0-96.2 range. The Cattle on Feed supply as of December 1st came in at 97.1% as compared with trade expectations for 96.8% of last year with a range of 96.5% to 97.4%.
Analysis: A combination of slower than expected cattle marketings and placements not down quite as much as expected leaves a bearish tilt to the report. The break this week helped to correct the overbought condition. Look for some weakness early Monday.
Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.
Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
