ConsensusActualPrevious
HICP - M/M-0.3%-0.4%-0.1%
HICP - Y/Y9.2%9.2%10.1%
Narrow Core - M/M0.6%0.6%0.0%
Narrow Core - Y/Y5.2%5.2%5.0%

Highlights

Headline inflation fell sharply in December. A final 9.2 percent annual rate matched the flash reading and was well down on November's final 10.1 percent. The decline, which reflected a slightly steeper revised 0.4 percent monthly fall in prices, left the yearly rate at a 4-month low but still some 7.2 percentage points above the ECB's 2 percent target.

Crucially however, once again the deceleration in the overall rate was not mirrored in the unrevised core measures. Hence, the narrowest gauge rose from 5.0 percent to an unrevised 5.2 percent while the broader index which excludes just energy and unprocessed food climbed from 6.6 percent to 6.9 percent. Both outturns constitute new all-time highs. More generally, the rate for non-energy industrial goods increased from 6.1 percent to 6.4 percent while its services counterpart rose from 4.2 percent to 4.4 percent. Energy (25.5 percent after 34.9 percent) subtracted significantly but food, alcohol and tobacco (13.8 percent after 13.6 percent) again provided a boost.

Regionally, inflation rates were down across the board apart from Slovenia (unchanged at 10.8 percent) and Malta (7.3 percent after 7.2 percent). France (6.7 percent after 7.1 percent), Germany (9.6 percent after 11.3 percent), Italy (12.3 percent after 12.6 percent) and Spain (5.6 percent after 6.7 percent) all recorded sizeable headline declines. Elsewhere, Latvia (20.7 percent) remained at the top of the inflation ladder ahead of Lithuania (20.0 percent).

Today's update will be seen by many of the ECB's Governing Council members as confirmation that underlying inflation pressures have yet to be brought back under control. Benchmark interest rates will be headed north again next month and probably by another 50 basis points. Indeed, the final December data put the Eurozone's ECDI at 34 and the ECDI-P at a very high 65. Both measures indicate significant overall economic outperformance that should ease the path to securing agreement on a sizeable tightening.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the provisional data leaving a 9.2 percent annual headline inflation rate and a 5.2 percent narrow core.

Definition

The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is a measure of consumer prices used to calculate inflation on a consistent basis across the European Union. Changes in the index provide an estimate of inflation, as targeted by the European Central Bank (ECB). Eurostat provides statistics for the EU and Eurozone aggregates, individual member states and for the major subsectors. Over the short-term, the central bank focusses on a number of core measures which seek to strip out the most volatile components and so give a much better guide to underlying developments. Amongst these, financial markets normally concentrate upon the narrowest gauge which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco.

Description

The measure of choice in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is the harmonized index of consumer prices which has been constructed to allow cross member state comparisons. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In the European Monetary Union, where monetary policy decisions rest on the ECB's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.

Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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