| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.4% | 1.0% | -2.0% | -1.9% |
| Year over Year | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.4% |
Highlights
Having dropped a sizeable, if marginally smaller revised, 1.9 percent on the month in October, industrial production managed a 1.0 percent gain in November. However, with base effects strongly negative, the increase, which was more than double the market consensus, still saw annual growth slide from 3.4 percent to 2.0 percent. Output was just 1.8 percent above its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.
November's limited recovery reflected particularly sharp monthly gains in capital goods (8.8 percent) and consumer non-durables (6.3 percent) as well as slightly stronger consumer durables (0.3 percent). Energy (minus 10.7 percent) declined for a fourth straight month while intermediates (minus 3.3 percent) extended their unbroken run of falls that began in June.
Regionally, most member states recorded monthly rises. However, amongst the larger four, a 0.6 percent increase in France contrasted with fresh setbacks in Germany (minus 0.2 percent), Italy (minus 3.7 percent) and Spain (minus 1.8 percent).
The partial rebound puts average Eurozone industrial production in October/November 0.3 percent below its average level in the third quarter and so retains the possibility that the sector might subtract from fourth quarter GDP growth. Absent revisions, December will need at least a 0.4 percent monthly gain just to keep the quarter flat. Still, more generally, the November data boost the region's ECDI to 41 and the ECDI-P to a very solid 60. Strongly positive readings on both measures indicate that economic activity in general has been easily beating market expectations and will help to clear the path for the ECB to raise key interest rates again next month
November's limited recovery reflected particularly sharp monthly gains in capital goods (8.8 percent) and consumer non-durables (6.3 percent) as well as slightly stronger consumer durables (0.3 percent). Energy (minus 10.7 percent) declined for a fourth straight month while intermediates (minus 3.3 percent) extended their unbroken run of falls that began in June.
Regionally, most member states recorded monthly rises. However, amongst the larger four, a 0.6 percent increase in France contrasted with fresh setbacks in Germany (minus 0.2 percent), Italy (minus 3.7 percent) and Spain (minus 1.8 percent).
The partial rebound puts average Eurozone industrial production in October/November 0.3 percent below its average level in the third quarter and so retains the possibility that the sector might subtract from fourth quarter GDP growth. Absent revisions, December will need at least a 0.4 percent monthly gain just to keep the quarter flat. Still, more generally, the November data boost the region's ECDI to 41 and the ECDI-P to a very solid 60. Strongly positive readings on both measures indicate that economic activity in general has been easily beating market expectations and will help to clear the path for the ECB to raise key interest rates again next month
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Production in November is expected to rise a monthly 0.4 percent after posting a particularly poor 2.0 percent decline in October.
Definition
Industrial production measures the physical output of factories, mines and utilities. The measure provided by Eurostat excludes the volatile construction subsector for which data are released a few days later.
Description
Industrial production measures changes in the volume of output for the EMU's member states. The industrial production index provides a measure of the volume trend in value added at factor cost over a given reference period, excluding VAT and other similar deductible taxes. The preferred number is industrial production excluding construction. As with other EMU statistics, the data are provided by the national statistics offices to Eurostat (the European Union statistical agency) where it is combined to produce an overall output measure.
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
