Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.5% | 0.8% | -1.8% | -1.5% |
Year over Year | -3.2% | -2.8% | -2.7% | -2.6% |
Highlights
November's monthly gain was attributable to a 1.6 percent increase in sales of non-food (ex-auto fuel) products and a 0.8 percent rise in auto fuel. Increases here more than offset a 0.9 percent drop in food, drink and tobacco, the subsector's third fall in the last four months.
Regionally, Germany (1.1 percent) and, in particular, Spain (3.6 percent) posted solid advances but France (minus 1.0 percent) saw a second successive drop. Elsewhere, the picture was similarly mixed.
The limited rebound leaves average Eurozone retail sales in October/November 0.6 percent below their average level in the third quarter. Absent any revisions, December will need a monthly rise of at least 1.3 percent to prevent the sector from subtracting from fourth quarter GDP growth. Nonetheless, today's suite of data puts the Eurozone's ECDI at 24 and the ECDI-P at 35, both measures indicating overall economic outperformance versus expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.