ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%
Year over Year8.6%8.6%8.6%

Highlights

Inflation fell sharply in December. Prices showed an unrevised 0.8 percent monthly fall in the final data, steep enough to slash headline annual inflation from 10.0 percent to 8.6 percent. This was the lowest reading since August (7.9 percent).

The flash HICP was also unrevised, leaving a sharper 1.2 percent drop versus November to reduce its yearly change from 11.3 percent to 9.6 percent. However, this was still fully 7.6 percentage points above the ECB's target albeit well down from October's record 11.6 percent.

Within the CPI basket, inflation in overall goods fell from 17.1 percent to 13.9 percent, but in large part this was due to much weaker energy (24.4 percent after 38.7 percent) on the back of government support measures. For once, food (20.7 percent after 21.1 percent) also subtracted, although not by very much, but services (3.9 percent after 3.6 percent) climbed quite sharply. Consequently, core inflation (ex-food and energy), which stood at 5.0 percent in October and November, accelerated to 5.2 percent.

Headline inflation fell in December in most Eurozone countries but it will be the stickiness of the core rates that the ECB will be most focused on and key interest rates will almost certainly be hiked again next month. The German ECDI now stands at minus 7 but, at 10, the ECDI-P indicates that, in general, real economic activity is performing marginally better than expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the provisional data leaving a 0.8 percent monthly fall in prices and an 8.6 percent annual inflation rate.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Germany where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Germany's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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