The German labour market surprisingly gained ground in December. A 13,000 fall to 2.520 million in the number of people out of work was the first decline of any size in seven months albeit only steep enough to leave the headline unemployment rate unchanged at November's downwardly revised 5.5 percent. This was a tick lower than the market consensus but, partly due to Ukrainian immigrants, still 0.5 percentage points above the low seen in last May/June.

Indeed, vacancies dropped a further 7,000 to 807,000. This was their seventh decline in as many months and left the level at its lowest mark since November 2021.

Nonetheless, today's update leaves the German ECDI (13) and ECDI-P (23) in positive surprise territory indicating that overall economic activity is still holding up somewhat better than the forecasters anticipated.

Unemployment in December is expected to hold steady at 5.6 percent.

The unemployment rate is calculated by the Federal Employment Agency based on the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the number of all civilian members of the labour force (dependant civilian employed persons, the self-employed family workers and unemployed). Unemployed is defined as persons who between the ages of 15 and 65 and who are without employment or only with short-time employment (currently less than 15 hours per week) and seeking an employment of at least 15 hours per week subject to compulsory insurance.

A snag to understanding German unemployment data comes from the fact that there are several measures of unemployment available. Unemployment rates calculated by the Bundesbank are preferred but some German analysts check the unadjusted rates as well. And then there are still different rates for unemployment that are used by Eurostat to compute their unemployment rate. The spread between the Bundesbank rates and Eurostat can be quite significant. The reason for the often sizeable differential is found in the interpretation of the ILO definition.

Unlike in the U.S. no wage data are included in this report. But by tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.