| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Year over Year | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% |
Highlights
The main contribution to the slowdown in the annual rate was again transport where prices rose 0.5 percent on the month compared with a 1.2 percent gain over the same period a year ago. Within this, weaker fuel prices subtracted nearly 0.2 percentage points. Elsewhere, clothing and footwear (minus 0.3 percent after 0.7 percent) and recreation and culture (minus 0.2 percent after 0.3 percent) similarly weighed. However, partial offsets were provided by restaurants and hotels, where prices climbed 0.9 percent versus a 0.1 percent fall in December 2021, and food and drink (minus 1.1 percent after minus 0.7 percent).
As a result, the core CPI rose a monthly 0.5 percent, large enough to leave the underlying inflation rate unchanged at 6.3 percent and so still only 0.2 percentage points below October's all-time high.
Consequently, despite the dip in overall inflation today's update shows that underlying pressures remain uncomfortably strong. As such, it is very unlikely to convince many BoE MPC members not to vote in favour of yet higher interest rates in February. To this end, the UK's ECDI now stands at 7 and the ECDI-P at 19, both measures indicating that economic activity in general is running a little head of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Bank of England generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index which is calculated using the European Union's Eurostat methodology so that inflation can be compared across EU member states.