Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
Year over Year | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% |
HICP - M/M | 0.2% | 0% | |
HICP - Y/Y | 5.3% | 5.1% |
Highlights
The flash HICP largely followed suit, also posting a 0.4 percent monthly gain that lifted its yearly rate from 6.7 percent to 7.0 percent, now some 5.0 percentage points above the ECB's target.
However, the increase in the annual CPI rate was wholly attributable to energy (16.3 percent after 15.1 percent), in part due to the ending of fuel rebates, and food (13.2 percent after 12.1 percent). Overall manufactured products (4.6 percent) were only flat and services (2.6 percent after 2.9 percent) declined. Consequently, the core rate (5.3 percent in December) probably also fell.
French HICP inflation remains close to the bottom of the Eurozone ladder (Spain was 5.8 percent in January) but underlying trends are still worryingly firm so today's update will not sit particularly well with the ECB. The January data put the French ECDI at 0 and the ECDI-P at 10. Overall real economic activity is running ahead of market expectations but not by much.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.