Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
Year over Year | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
Highlights
The flash HICP was also unrevised and so still shows a 0.1 percent fall versus November that trimmed its yearly rate from 7.1 percent to 6.7 percent, now some 4.7 percentage points above the ECB's target.
However, the fall in the annual CPI rate was largely attributable to energy (15.1 percent after 18.4 percent) although services (2.9 percent after 3.0 percent) were also a little weaker. Overall manufactured products (4.6 percent after 4.4 percent) accelerated again while food (12.1 percent after 12.0 percent) was also marginally higher. Consequently, the core rate was unchanged from October's 5.3 percent.
French inflation remains low in comparison with most of the rest of the Eurozone but December's headline drop is misleadingly sharp and masks much more resilient underlying developments. The central bank sees the headline rate falling to 4 percent towards the end of the year but any decline in the core rate is likely to be much shallower. Today's update puts the French ECDI at minus 11 and the ECDI-P at 5. Both readings indicate that recent overall economic activity has contained no major surprises.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.