| Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Growth | 4.30% | 4.45% |
| Employment Growth | 4.34% | 4.28% |
Highlights
The business outlook among managers in the US non-farm private sector for the coming 12 months remained mixed in January as global growth continues to slow amid elevated inflation and rising interest rates while domestic labor conditions remain tight, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's monthly survey indicated.
The sales growth uncertainty index stood at 4.30 in January, easing from 4.45 in December, when it improved from 4.69 in November. It followed 4.40 in October, 4.13 in September, 4.73 in August and 5.01 in July, which was the highest since 5.20 in November 2020. The index had edged lower to 4.45 in May from 4.46 in April and 4.47 in March. The latest level is above 4.31 seen in February and January 2022 and the recent low of 4.28 in September 2021.
By contrast, the index for employment growth uncertainty moved up to 4.34 in January from 4.28 in December, after improving in November to 4.23, the lowest point since 4.13 in March 2020. The latest figure is well below 4.72 seen in October, when it eased from 5.51 in September, which was the highest since 5.53 in October 2020. The index had surged to 5.44 in August from 5.06 in July, hitting the highest since 5.49 in November 2020, after rising to 4.92 in June form 4.61 in May.
The sales growth uncertainty index stood at 4.30 in January, easing from 4.45 in December, when it improved from 4.69 in November. It followed 4.40 in October, 4.13 in September, 4.73 in August and 5.01 in July, which was the highest since 5.20 in November 2020. The index had edged lower to 4.45 in May from 4.46 in April and 4.47 in March. The latest level is above 4.31 seen in February and January 2022 and the recent low of 4.28 in September 2021.
By contrast, the index for employment growth uncertainty moved up to 4.34 in January from 4.28 in December, after improving in November to 4.23, the lowest point since 4.13 in March 2020. The latest figure is well below 4.72 seen in October, when it eased from 5.51 in September, which was the highest since 5.53 in October 2020. The index had surged to 5.44 in August from 5.06 in July, hitting the highest since 5.49 in November 2020, after rising to 4.92 in June form 4.61 in May.
Definition
The survey of business uncertainty is a panel survey measuring year-ahead expectations that US firms have about their own sales and employment growth. The sample covers all regions of the US economy, all industries except agriculture and government, and a broad range of firm sizes. Sample size is about 150 responses per month. Readings in Econoday's presentation are seasonally adjusted. The Atlanta Fed publishes this monthly survey in partnership with the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and with Stanford University. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Description
The survey of business uncertainty offers timely updates on how US companies are assessing and reacting to unfolding events including news about the overall economy, about business sentiment and policy developments as well as moves in the stock market and changes in interest rates. Investors can use the data to help forecast economic activity and better understand how business expectations and uncertainty affect sales, employment as well as investment and other economic outcomes.
