| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 2.5% | 2.5% to 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Highlights
Japanese payrolls posted their fifth straight year-over-year growth in December as the tourism industry continued hiring workers and contractors are catching up, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.5 percent after falling in November from 2.6 percent, data released Tuesday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
There were fewer job cuts in December compared to November but more people joined the labor market, looking for work after a decline in that number in the prior month.
The government lifted most of its Covid border restrictions in October to allow more visitors from overseas, which has been supporting hotels and retail stores particularly when the relatively weak yen is raising the purchasing power of foreign tourists. The government also launched a new subsidy program in October to provide large discounts on domestic traveling.
On the downside, the eighth wave of the pandemic is causing a resurgence in the numbers of Covid infections and deaths, making some people including seniors more cautious about eating out and traveling.
The seasonally adjusted average unemployment rate stood at 2.5 percent in December, in line with the median economist forecast of 2.5 percent (forecasts ranged from 2.5 percent to 2.6 percent). It edged down to 2.5 percent in November from 2.6 percent in October and September, when it rose from 2.5 percent in August. The current level is a slight improvement from 2.8 percent at the start of 2022. The rate in August 2022 matched 2.5 percent in April 2022, which was the lowest since 2.4 percent in February 2020. The monthly jobless rate moved in tight ranges of 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in 2022.
The latest figure is below the recent high of 3.1 percent hit in October 2020 but still above 2.2 percent recorded in December 2019, just before the pandemic triggered a global slump.
In calendar 2022, the unemployment rate averaged 2.6 percent, down from 2.8 percent in 2021 and 2020, but up from 2.4 percent in 2019 and 2018.
In its monthly economic report released last week, the government maintained its assessment that employment conditions as"picking up."
The number of employed stood at a seasonally adjusted 67.19 million in December, up 60,000 (0.1 percent) from November, when it fell 230,000 (0.3 percent) on the month. The number of unemployed fell 20,000 (1.2 percent) to an adjusted 1.71 million after falling 50,000 (2.8 percent) the previous month.
The number of people who left for other openings fell 20,000 (2.8 percent) in December after rising 60,000 (9.2 percent) in November while the number of those who lost their jobs or retired decreased 30,000 (7.1 percent) after rising 10,000 (2.4 percent) the previous month. The number of people who began looking for work rebounded 40,000 (9.1 percent) after slumping 80,000 (15.4 percent) previously.
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed rose 100,000, to an unadjusted 67.16 million in December for the fifth straight increase after posting sharp gains of 280,000 in November, 500,000 in October and 400,000 in September.
The number of unemployed fell 150,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.58 million in December, marking the 18th straight month of decline after a sharp drop of 180,000 the previous month. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020 and is now below 1.60 million seen at the beginning of 2020.
As seen in the previous month, the overall employment increase in December from a year earlier was led by hotels, restaurants and bars, a category which posted the sixth straight year-over-year gain, albeit at a slower pace than in recent strong gains. People have been eating out and traveling without strict public health rules despite reports that Japan had entered the eighth wave of the pandemic in November.
After solid gains, the pace of hiring slowed sharply among information and telecommunications service providers as well as the medical and welfare category, both of which now posted slight drops on year.
Job creation in the wholesale and retail industry was down again after being flat in November and posting months of decline earlier while employment at construction firms posted the third straight month of increase on the year in December. Manufacturing jobs marked their first year-over-year drop in four months.
There were fewer job cuts in December compared to November but more people joined the labor market, looking for work after a decline in that number in the prior month.
The government lifted most of its Covid border restrictions in October to allow more visitors from overseas, which has been supporting hotels and retail stores particularly when the relatively weak yen is raising the purchasing power of foreign tourists. The government also launched a new subsidy program in October to provide large discounts on domestic traveling.
On the downside, the eighth wave of the pandemic is causing a resurgence in the numbers of Covid infections and deaths, making some people including seniors more cautious about eating out and traveling.
The seasonally adjusted average unemployment rate stood at 2.5 percent in December, in line with the median economist forecast of 2.5 percent (forecasts ranged from 2.5 percent to 2.6 percent). It edged down to 2.5 percent in November from 2.6 percent in October and September, when it rose from 2.5 percent in August. The current level is a slight improvement from 2.8 percent at the start of 2022. The rate in August 2022 matched 2.5 percent in April 2022, which was the lowest since 2.4 percent in February 2020. The monthly jobless rate moved in tight ranges of 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in 2022.
The latest figure is below the recent high of 3.1 percent hit in October 2020 but still above 2.2 percent recorded in December 2019, just before the pandemic triggered a global slump.
In calendar 2022, the unemployment rate averaged 2.6 percent, down from 2.8 percent in 2021 and 2020, but up from 2.4 percent in 2019 and 2018.
In its monthly economic report released last week, the government maintained its assessment that employment conditions as"picking up."
The number of employed stood at a seasonally adjusted 67.19 million in December, up 60,000 (0.1 percent) from November, when it fell 230,000 (0.3 percent) on the month. The number of unemployed fell 20,000 (1.2 percent) to an adjusted 1.71 million after falling 50,000 (2.8 percent) the previous month.
The number of people who left for other openings fell 20,000 (2.8 percent) in December after rising 60,000 (9.2 percent) in November while the number of those who lost their jobs or retired decreased 30,000 (7.1 percent) after rising 10,000 (2.4 percent) the previous month. The number of people who began looking for work rebounded 40,000 (9.1 percent) after slumping 80,000 (15.4 percent) previously.
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed rose 100,000, to an unadjusted 67.16 million in December for the fifth straight increase after posting sharp gains of 280,000 in November, 500,000 in October and 400,000 in September.
The number of unemployed fell 150,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.58 million in December, marking the 18th straight month of decline after a sharp drop of 180,000 the previous month. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020 and is now below 1.60 million seen at the beginning of 2020.
As seen in the previous month, the overall employment increase in December from a year earlier was led by hotels, restaurants and bars, a category which posted the sixth straight year-over-year gain, albeit at a slower pace than in recent strong gains. People have been eating out and traveling without strict public health rules despite reports that Japan had entered the eighth wave of the pandemic in November.
After solid gains, the pace of hiring slowed sharply among information and telecommunications service providers as well as the medical and welfare category, both of which now posted slight drops on year.
Job creation in the wholesale and retail industry was down again after being flat in November and posting months of decline earlier while employment at construction firms posted the third straight month of increase on the year in December. Manufacturing jobs marked their first year-over-year drop in four months.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese payrolls are expected to have posted their fifth straight year-over-year growth in December as the tourism industry has been hiring workers to meet reopening demand and factory operators and contractors are catching up, while the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 2.5 percent after edging down in November from 2.6 percent. Eased Covid rules and the government's subsidy program for domestic travel have been supporting hotels and retail stores. The eighth wave of the pandemic might have pushed up the jobless rate slightly to 2.6 percent.
Definition
The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.
Description
The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
