| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims - Level | 225K | 215K to 230K | 224K | 236K | 237K |
| Initial Claims - Change | -13K | 44K | 45K | ||
| 4-Week Moving Average | 217.50K | 216.75K | 217K |
Highlights
In lagging data for the December 6 week, insured unemployment rebounded 67,000 to 1.897 million after falling 107,000 the previous week. The four-week moving average was down to 1.902 million from 1.916 million. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.2 percent.
Seasonal factors had expected a decrease in unadjusted claims of 44,785, or 14.2 percent in the December 13 employment survey week, but unadjusted claims were down 59,903 or 19.0 percent.
Illinois reported the largest decrease (minus 7,132), followed by New York (minus 5,513), and Pennsylvania (minus 5,215). The largest increase was 461 in Rhode Island.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.