10-Year Treasury Note futures yields moved lower today, closing at 4.10%, down four basis points on the session. This marked the 13th time out of the last 15 trading days that the 4.10% level was traded, suggesting market uncertainty while awaiting a clear catalyst. The delayed September nonfarm payrolls report showed a stronger headline job number but also indicated higher unemployment. This mixed data did not significantly shift Federal Reserve rate cut odds, which remain below 40% for the December FOMC meeting. Volatility, as measured by the CBOE index, also moved lower today, in tandem with the declining yields. Upcoming data includes real earnings, S&P PMIs, and the University of Michigan sentiment report, which will include its one and five year inflation components. Traders are also monitoring hawkish statements from Fed speakers as the week concludes.
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