Why palladium matters to the growth of the platinum market
Executive summary
Platinum is a critical mineral for the energy transition, and hydrogen-related demand for platinum is forecast to grow substantially through the remainder of the decade and beyond. Platinum catalysts in the electrolysis and fuel cell markets are expected to account for up to 15% of total platinum demand by 2030, reaching as much as 35% of total annual platinum demand by 2040.
Yet platinum has transitioned into a supply deficit in 2023, with WPIC’s outlook suggesting consecutive deficits sustained to at least 2027. Multi-year platinum deficits will draw down above ground platinum stocks and tighten markets at a time of rapid acceleration in the growth of the hydrogen economy.
Fortunately, there are existing end-uses of platinum where substitution with other platinum group metals (PGMs) could free up availability of platinum to ensure it is not a bottleneck for the growing hydrogen economy. In this context, palladium is of particular relevance due to its use in autocatalysts, its primary demand segment.
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Overview of the platinum market
Figure 1: Platinum is forecast to move into market deficit from 2023
