Can Bitcoin Halving Emulate Searing Rallies of the Past?
Bitcoin will go through its approximate quadrennial halving on April 19, 2024. The past three halvings coincided with tremendous runups in bitcoin (BTC) prices, the last of which echoed through the ether market.
What’s going to happen
On April 19, the “block reward” for mining a new block of bitcoin will drop from the current 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 bitcoin. This will likely reduce the number of BTC produced per day from the current pace of around 900 to approximately 450, tightening supply.
Of the 21 million BTC that are set to be mined between now and 2140, 19.6 million, or 93.3%, have already been created. Of that 19.6 million, perhaps as much as 20% may have been permanently lost, leaving us with probably 15-16 million BTC in circulation. As such, the reduction in new supply could have a substantial impact on prices, as was the case in the past.
BTC prices and past halvings
Figure 1: BTC’s next halving could take annual supply down to 165,000 coins from 330,000
Figure 2: BTC rallied sharply in the 365 days following past halvings of new supply
Figure 3: The number of daily transactions has sometimes presaged bitcoin rallies and falls
Figure 4: BTC’s trailing 1Y volatility recently fell to a record low
Figure 5: Spikes in miners’ revenue per transaction signalled coming bitcoin bear markets
