Gold Volatility Rises as Expectations Change

Before a recent price surge on the heels of the Israel/Hamas conflict, rising Treasury yields helped spark a decline in gold prices.  Yields have continued to rise because investors are finally starting to believe the Federal Reserve’s determination to keep rates higher for longer. The U.S. Treasury is also being forced to issue massive amounts of new paper into a market where traditional buyers are reducing their purchases.

Additionally, gold has been moving in almost perfect sync to the dollar, only in the opposite direction. These factors have contributed to rising volatility and trading volume in CME Group  gold options. 

Gold’s outlook, fortunately or unfortunately, typically has much to do with the underlying interest rate environment. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is priced in dollars and does not yield any interest. But, gold is also known to be a hedge in times of uncertainty and during the possibility of heightened geopolitical risk.  

Just prior to the escalation of the Israel/Hamas war, gold reached its lowest settlement since March, and was headed toward potential further declines, with its short-term moving average nearly falling below its longer-term moving average. 

The futures and options market reflected this bearish sentiment through the CME Group Volatility Index or CVOL. CVOL is unique in that it applies a simple formula using out-of-the-money put and call options prices in highly liquid markets to produce a single view of risk expectations for the next 30 days. 

CVOL also measures “skew,” which is the difference in volatility between at-the-money (ATM) options, in-the-money options, and out-of-the-money (OTM) options. Skew serves as an indication of the direction of volatility relative to upside or downside price risk. 

We can see from the chart below that prior to the Middle East conflict, the skew in gold options heavily favored OTM puts. In fact, the skew was at its most negative in over a year.

As of October 2, 5% OTM puts were priced at nearly 20% implied volatility and 5% OTM calls were priced at approximately 15.5% implied volatility. For options expiring in 30 days, 5% OTM puts were priced at nearly 15.5% and 5% OTM calls were priced near 13%. In other words, options traders were positioning for a shift to the downside in the coming weeks. 

But that changed quickly as geopolitical risks heightened, as can be seen in the following graph.