Lithium and copper output could also rise sharply in Chile and Peru, experts said. While the U.S. has had longstanding free trade agreements (FTAs) with both Andean nations, it deepened those relationships in April 2026 by adding specific bilateral deals to scale up mining projects. 

Juan Ortiz, vice-president of operations at Peruvian mining company Buenaventura, expects Project Vault to significantly bolster South American lithium and copper uptake, helping to strengthen sagging prices.

"The lithium market has been very depressed and there is a lot of installed capacity that needs to be put to work," Ortiz noted, adding that growing U.S. orders could help fill this gap.

Specifically, he said lithium demand could increase 8% to 9% annually by 2030, while copper could grow 10% to 15% in that same timeframe as easier financing helps the industry pivot into higher-value copper cathode production. Molybdenum (used for industrial lubricants) and manganese (an EV battery component) are also set to benefit, he added. 

He expects small and midsize miners to see a boon from the U.S.'s desire to source more cathode from the geography. This is because the bulk of Chilean and Peruvian production of the orange industrial metal goes to China in concentrate form – a supply chain dynamic that works against U.S. decoupling interests. 

"Project Vault is going to benefit copper, especially small cathode makers," said Ortiz. "If you [U.S. company] support concentrate making, you have to send your product to China to be refined, losing control of the supply chain. So you are going to want to be specialized in cathode that you can send directly to the U.S."

Cathodes, which command higher premiums in the copper market, are used for a plethora of industrial applications, notably electrical wiring but also as components for EV engines, wind turbines and even AI data centers.

Already, a string of startups are negotiating supply deals with U.S. commodity trading firms Hartree Partners, Traxys North America and Mercuria Energy Group (which Project Vault has designated as procurement and sourcing agents) to raise cathode production, according to Ortiz. 

One of them is Quilla Resources, which wants to boost annual production to 30,000 cathodes from 10,000 now, he said. In late September, Glencore and Mercuria became the first two participants in VaultCo, the independently governed and run private company implementing Project Vault, the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported.

As more similar deals are forged, Ortiz expects cathode production will account for up to 13% of the region’s total copper supply, up from 10% now.

Meanwhile, Washington is also moving to secure key rare earths such as neodymium or dysprosium through large loans and acquisitions in Brazil. In February 2026, it loaned $565 million to the Pela Ema mine in Goiás via an International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) loan. Shortly afterward, USA Rare Earth bought Pela Ema owner Serra Verde Group for $2.8 billion. 

Adam Webb, an analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, agreed South America will likely benefit from Project Vault, adding that the initiative's purchasing commitments and funding support will help miners find new markets after a recent investment wave triggered a supply glut. 

"These projects are going to get easier funding because of U.S. companies supporting them and taking stakes in them," he said. "If none of these measures were in place, many projects would remain oversupplied and struggle to find customers." 

To help investors manage risks in the metals space, CME Group offers a growing range of futures and options contracts for copper and aluminum, as well as for lithium and cobalt. The exchange also offers futures and options in gold and silver as well as in platinum, palladium, steel and iron ore, among other key metals. In the first half of 2026, CME Group’s metals complex saw average daily volume (ADV) surge 55% to a record 1.3 million contracts.

Additionally, with energy transition dynamics increasingly requiring precise risk management, CME Group recently launched Lithium Carbonate options to provide market participants with the flexibility to manage battery metals volatility and protect their positions.

Aaron Mintzes, deputy policy director at Earthworks, doesn't expect Project Vault will significantly boost South American metals demand. The framework's projected benefits seem 'overinflated' and fail to account for growing recycling initiatives in the U.S., he argued.

"Many people believe the only source of a metal is a brand-new mine but that's not the case,” he said. “In copper's case, one third of it comes from recycled scrap in the U.S., which is set to increase from automotive and steel production." 

"People also underestimate the potential for recycling or repurposing of lithium EV batteries,” added Mintzes. “There is a groundswell of support for recycling and 10 years from now we won't be building any more lithium mines."