Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, experts estimate as much as a 45% drop in the number of holiday travelers compared to 2019, according to GasBuddy. This, even as gas prices are at the lowest level they have been during the Thanksgiving season since 2016.  AAA expects the largest one-year decrease in Thanksgiving travel since 2008.

The American Farm Bureau Federation released its latest cost of a Thanksgiving meal for the year.  The 2020 price for a dinner for 10 people would cost $46.90, down $2.01 from 2019 and the lowest cost since 2010.   Commodity markets have changed since last year in many areas that affect what we eat at the dinner table, and how we might travel during the season. Let’s look at the major commodities that affect the Thanksgiving holiday.

According to the Energy Information Administration, gasoline demand is down almost 10% from the same period last year. Americans are staying home, working and e-learning from home, and not driving as much.   

OPEC recently trimmed its global oil demand forecasts for the remainder of 2020 and 2021, citing a weaker-than-expected economic outlook and a surge in coronavirus cases.  The group has steadily lowered its oil demand outlook for 2021 from an initial expectation of 7 million barrels per day in July. 

Typically, lower gas prices help to lift air travel, but this is not the case in 2020. The Wednesday before and the Sunday after Thanksgiving are typically the most expensive days of the year to travel. However, bookings have dropped as new coronavirus cases hit records.  According to the TSA, daily travelers passing through checkpoints have dropped over 60% from November 2019 to November 2020.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals for booking flights will likely take a pause this year, especially with many people staying home for the holidays.  Typically, the best day of the year to buy flights is called Travel Tuesday, the day after Cyber Monday, where deals are abundant according to travel site, Hopper.  

Warmer weather throughout much of the United States led to a steep decrease in natural gas prices in early November. Natural gas recently traded as high as $3.40 but has now settled in to almost the exact price it was last Thanksgiving, hovering around $2.60.

Much of the country experienced an arctic blast just before Thanksgiving last year, which pushed prices to their early-2019 highs, near $2.60.  Natural gas prices jumped nearly 25% from June through November 2019, but this year we are seeing the opposite.  According to Bespoke Weather Service, a warmer weather pattern should hold into at least the early part of December, which could pressure natural gas prices beyond Thanksgiving.

Depending on where you reside, turkey or ham may be a centerpiece of the Thanksgiving meal.  The farmers who raise those animals, rely on a steady supply of feed grains, such as corn, soybean meal and wheat to produce and bring those animals to market. Corn futures prices are nearly 20% higher than they were for Thanksgiving 2018 and 2019, and almost 25% higher than Thanksgiving 2017.  Corn futures are trading at the highest price since a recent peak of about $4.60 in June 2019. 

There are no futures markets for turkey, but if we’re talking about Thanksgiving, we can’t forget the centerpiece of nearly every meal. The Farm Bureau says the average price for a 16-pound turkey for the 2020 holiday is $19.39, down 5.9% from 2019, and prices for whipping cream and sweet potatoes will also be lower. Meals could be smaller this year with many staying home. Prices look set to shrink as well with market dynamics for many Thanksgiving staples setting prices lower than in recent years.

Regardless of travel restrictions or reduced meal sizes, Thanksgiving remains a busy time for many, and that includes those who produce, deliver and market these commodities and the markets setting prices for all the things that make it a memorable holiday.