5 Min read

Agriculture

As El Niño Intensifies, Natural Gas Takes a Tumble

30 Nov 2023

The El Niño weather pattern that could herald a warmer-than-normal winter in North America is gaining in intensity, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rising 1.5 degrees Centigrade above normal levels through the August-October three-monthly tracking period this year (Figure 1).

Figure 1: El Niño returns after four years, could herald a warmer-than-normal winter

Figure 1: El Niño returns after four years, could herald a warmer-than-normal winter — Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Figure 2: Natural gas futures tend to respond to El Niño and La Niña weather patterns

Figure 3: High storage levels of natural gas are also a factor in the price slump

Figure 4: There has been a sharp decline in the rig count, but output continues to rise

El Niño and the Midwest Grain Belt

Figure 5: Could El Niño stretch into the corn planting season next spring?

Agriculture data