The crack spread, which serves as a proxy for refinery margins, represents the pricing differential between a barrel of crude oil and refined products, such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. While gasoline crack spreads have seen a steady increase, the most dramatic surges have occurred within the distillate and jet fuel markets, with European jet fuel crack spreads widening to a record of $111.51 per barrel, according to S&P Global Energy. 

The ongoing conflict has disrupted both crude oil supplies and the export of refined products from the Gulf Region, leading to a significant tightening of global fuel supplies. This substantial gap indicates a severe shortage of refined products in addition to that of crude oil.

While drivers are feeling the pinch, the aviation sector is also experiencing turbulence. The cost of jet fuel and kerosene-based products nearly doubled following the initial geopolitical shock, jumping to more than $200 per barrel. Airlines, which operate on tight margins, are being forced to pivot aggressively to survive the crisis since fuel represents one of their largest overhead costs.

As such, airlines including American Airlines, British Airways, Delta, Lufthansa and United Airlines, have announced capacity cuts, scaling back on flight schedules and consolidating routes to maximize fuel efficiency per passenger. Spirit Airlines took the biggest hit, shutting down in May after failing to secure emergency funding. In Europe, where reliance on Middle Eastern imports is particularly high, major airlines have warned of jet fuel shortfalls that could directly impact summer capacity.

Fares on international routes have jumped substantially, and specific fuel surcharges now reach upwards of $150 on long-haul tickets. Airlines that locked in fuel prices before the war through hedging strategies are currently reaping the benefits and insulating themselves from the worst of the shocks, but warn that they cannot fully offset the impact from the rise of refined product prices. 

As the 2026 summer driving and flying season unfolds, consumers are bearing the brunt of a fragile global supply chain. While domestic refiners are eager to capture wide crack spreads and airlines are actively re-engineering their flight schedules to manage costs and fuel scarcities, relief at both the pump and the terminal will largely depend on geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East. Until the flow of crude and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes, travelers may want to prepare their wallets for an expensive summer.