In the third quarter of 2026, U.S. equities navigated rising treasury yields, persistent geopolitical turmoil and the sustainability of AI to generate returns. Despite these headwinds, the S&P 500 posted a 2.25% price return for the quarter. Factor performance relative to the S&P 500 revealed stark divergences. For the period of July 1 - September 30, 2026 Growth, Value and Yield were the three best-performing factors, while Momentum, Quality and Low Volatility were the three worst-performing factors.
| Index | Q3 Price Return | Excess vs. S&P 500 (2.25%) |
| S&P 500 Growth | 3.94% | 1.69% |
| Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 | 2.14% | -0.11% |
| S&P 500 Value | 0.19% | -2.06% |
| S&P 500 Momentum | -2.42% | -4.67% |
| S&P 500 Quality | -5.48% | -7.73% |
| S&P 500 Low Volatility | -6.26% | -8.51% |
Factor performance in Q3
- S&P 500 Growth (+3.94%): Outperformed after rebounding from early-quarter lows, driven by heavy allocations to Information Technology (54.1%) and Communication Services (15.4%).
- Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 (+2.14%): The index targets stocks with consistent dividend records and robust financial ratios. It offered a defensive position through its allocations to Consumer Goods (19.6%), Health Care (19.2%) and Oil & Gas (15.4%).
- S&P 500 Value (+0.19%): While Value remained in positive territory, it lagged the broader market by 2.06%. It was supported by Financials (15.2%) and Industrials (10.8%), but lacked the strong tech exposure that propelled Growth.
- S&P 500 Momentum (-2.42%): Momentum dropped significantly after peaking in late June. Following its mid-September rebalance, overall IT exposure remained around 54%, but sub-sector weights shifted markedly: Technology Hardware & Equipment doubled to 23%, while Semiconductors dropped by over 11%. By design, Momentum typically experiences higher turnover during rebalances as market trends evolve.
- S&P 500 Quality (-5.48%): The index screens for return on equity, accruals ratio and financial leverage lagged the benchmark by 7.73% due to high exposure to legacy IT (38%) and Industrials (18.7%).
- S&P 500 Low Volatility (-6.26%): This index tracks the 100 least volatile stocks in the benchmark and weights them inversely to their historical volatility. The lag compared to the benchmark was primarily structural: 0% allocation to Information Technology and Communication Services, alongside high weightings in rate-sensitive Utilities (27%) and Real Estate (17%).
Where are factors going in Q4?
As we look toward Q4, the macroeconomic picture remains complex given the interest rate environment, the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and the ongoing global energy supply shocks. Against this backdrop, factor performance may continue to diverge. Our Equity Index Factor futures provide targeted exposure to the drivers of U.S. market performance.
Covering key factors including Growth, Value, Quality, Momentum, Low Volatility and High Dividend, these financially settled contracts enable targeted style rotation, factor risk hedging and long/short relative value strategies.
|
Contract |
CME Globex Code |
Bloomberg Code Front Month |
|---|---|---|
|
SPGR |
SMWA Index |
|
|
SPV |
ISPA Index |
|
|
SPQ |
YSYA Index |
|
|
SPMO |
XMOA Index |
|
|
SPLV |
SSLA Index |
|
|
DJD |
DCDA Index |
Take advantage of opportunities with CME Factor futures
- Factor rotation strategies: Designed to complement existing single- and multi-factor strategies, E-mini Factor futures offer investors access to factor returns to navigate volatility and enhance portfolio returns. For institutional traders and portfolio managers, Factor futures offer precise, capital-efficient tools to express factor performance views.
- The AI capex cycle: Growth may continue to be heavily influenced by mega-cap technology and AI infrastructure spending. If earnings validate the large capital expenditures in this space, Growth could maintain its leadership; if spending slows, it could face valuation risks. For portfolios seeking exposure to AI without buying multiple single stocks, E-mini S&P 500 Growth futures (SPGR) may serve as an efficient way to access the factor.
- Momentum's reset: With its recent rebalance, Momentum is now newly calibrated. Depending on whether market breadth continues to widen or narrows back to mega-cap tech, Momentum may be a useful tool.
- Dividend yield: With dividends finishing strongly in Q3 and the current environment, market participants may want to harvest the yield factor. The Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 offers defensive characteristics due to its fundamental screening. A trader could execute a spread trade by going long E-mini Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 futures (DJD) and shorting E-mini S&P 500 Quality futures (SPQ) if they believe there will be a continued rotation between defensive income and more cyclical names. This pair's trade removes some of the broader equity market beta while harvesting the yield and stability that the Dividend 100 currently commands over the Quality factor.
All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered legal advice, investment advice or the results of actual market experience. Where regulatory matters are summarized, they represent CME Group’s good faith understanding of the applicable requirements.