Our FedWatch tool currently updates only at the end of each day. An intra-day automatically updating version is being prepared. Probabilities are estimated based yesterday’s Fed Funds Futures settlement prices and effective Fed Funds rate.
The CME Group FedWatch tool lets you quickly gauge the market’s expectations of potential changes to the Fed Funds target rate.
The CME Group FedWatch is based on 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, which have long been used to express the market’s views on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy.
This tool is built in HTML5, which performs best in Firefox, Chrome, or Internet Explorer 9+. If you are using Internet Explorer version 8 or below, please click here for the Flash-based tool.
All market data contained within the CME Group website should be considered as a reference only and should not be used as validation against, nor as a complement to, real-time market data feeds.