Micro Gold (MGC) and Micro Silver futures (SIL) update
- Gold started the month quietly coming off the Lunar New Year, but ultimately finished up nearly 6%.
- In early February, gold was held range bound by CPI numbers hitting a 40-year high and an increasingly hawkish tone from the Fed; however, geopolitical uncertainty and ultimately a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine sent prices soaring to levels not seen since Q3/Q4 2020.
- Stocks and crypto were driven sharply lower throughout the month while gold, crude, palladium, and other Russia-sensitive assets soared.
- Earlier in February, there was a >90% probability that the target federal funds rate would be set at 50 basis points on March 16. By the end of the month, that probability was <7%. (Source: CME FedWatch Tool)
- According to Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, managed money has built a sizeable long position in gold, large open interest holders rose 14% during the month, and open interest grew to over 600K contracts.
- Silver largely mirrored gold’s moves but remains well below 2021 highs.
- On February 24, CME Group posted its best Micro Gold (MGC) volume day since January 2021 at 145K round turns. Micro Silver (SIL) followed closely behind, trading over 20K round turns, the highest volume day since May 2021.
* APAC hours represent 8 a.m. – 8 p.m. SGT/HKT
MGC and SIL price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)
* Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price, multiplied by the contract notional size in troy ounce.
Key economic events in March/April
- March 4 – Nonfarm payrolls – 9:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- March 8 – Balance of Trade – 9:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- March 10 – U.S. Inflation numbers – 9:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- March 16 – Retail sales – 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- March 17 – FOMC interest rate decision + press conference – 2:00 a.m. SGT / HK
- April 1 – Nonfarm payrolls – 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- April 1 – Manufacturing PMIs – 10:00 p.m. SGT / HK
- April 5 – Balance of Trade – 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
- April 7 – FOMC Minutes – 2:00 a.m. SGT / HK
- April 12 – US Inflation numbers – 8:30 p.m. SGT / HK
Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves with the CME FedWatch Tool.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) tool can provide a comprehensive and highly configurable graphical representation of the CFTC's report on market open interest.
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