Highlights
  • Despite stronger economic data, including higher-than-expected NFPs, sticky inflation, and a strong U.S. dollar, the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, sparked fears of a wider war in the Middle East. This led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, pushing its price above $2,000/oz. towards the end of October. The worry over the war spreading helped gold gain 6.9% in October and close the month at $1,994.30/oz.
  • Silver prices rise alongside its yellow counterpart on the back of Middle East tension to settle the month at $22.950/oz., up 2.2% MoM.
  • Weak Chinese demand, as evidenced by contracting manufacturing data that missed forecasts, and a strong U.S. dollar weighed on copper prices in October. Prices ended the month at $3.6490/lb., down 2.4% from September. This marked the third consecutive month of decline. 
  • Micro Gold futures (MGC) and Micro Silver futures (SIL) started strong in Q4 2023, with an average daily volume (ADV) of 66,146 contracts and 12,577 contracts, up 31% and 27% QoQ, respectively. The robust liquidity allows market participants to hedge/take positions effectively.

MGC, SIL, and MHG price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)

*Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price multiplied by the contract notional in troy ounce (MGC and SIL) and pounds (MHG).

Options Heatmap (Change in OI from October 2 to October 31, 2023)

Key Economic Events in November/December 2023:

Key Economic Event

ET

GMT / BST

SGT / HKT

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Nov 1, 10.00 a.m.

Nov 1, 2.00 p.m.

Nov 1, 10.00 p.m.

U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision and Fed Press Conference

Nov 1, 2.00 p.m.

Nov 1, 6.00 p.m.

Nov 2, 2.00 a.m.

U.S. Non Farm Payrolls

Nov 3, 8.30 a.m.

Nov 3, 12.30 p.m.

Nov 3, 8.30 p.m.

China Balance of Trade

Nov 6, 10.00 p.m.

Nov 7, 3.00 a.m.

Nov 7, 11.00 a.m.

China Inflation Rate YoY

Nov 8, 8.30 p.m.

Nov 9, 1.30 a.m.

Nov 9, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Inflation Numbers

Nov 14, 8.30 a.m.

Nov 14, 1.30 p.m.

Nov 14, 9.30 p.m.

China Industrial Production YoY

Nov 14, 9.00 p.m.

Nov 15, 2.00 a.m.

Nov 15, 10.00 a.m.

FOMC Minutes

Nov 22, 2.00 p.m.

Nov 22, 7.00 p.m.

Nov 23, 3.00 a.m.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Nov 29, 8.30 p.m.

Nov 30, 1.30 a.m.

Nov 30, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Core PCE Price Index

Nov 30, 8.30 a.m.

Nov 30, 1.30 p.m.

Nov 30, 9.30 p.m.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Nov 30, 8.45 p.m.

Dec 1, 1.45 a.m.

Dec 1, 9.45 a.m.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Dec 1, 10.00 a.m.

Dec 1, 3.00 p.m.

Dec 1, 11.00 p.m.

China Balance of Trade

Dec 6, 10.00 p.m.

Dec 7, 3.00 a.m.

Dec 7, 11.00 a.m.

U.S. Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Dec 8, 8.30 a.m.

Dec 8, 1.30 p.m.

Dec 8, 9.30 p.m.

China Inflation Rate YoY

Dec 8, 8.30 p.m.

Dec 9, 1.30 a.m.

Dec 9, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Inflation Numbers

Dec 12, 8.30 a.m.

Dec 12, 1.30 p.m.

Dec 12, 9.30 p.m.

U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision and Fed Press Conference

Dec 13, 2.00 p.m.

Dec 13, 7.00 p.m.

Dec 14, 3.00 a.m.

U.S. Core PCE Price Index

Dec 22, 8.30 a.m.

Dec 22, 1.30 p.m.

Dec 22, 9.30 p.m.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Dec 30, 8.30 p.m.

Dec 31, 1.30 p.m.

Dec 31, 9.30 a.m.

Source: CME Group, Quikstrike

Useful resources

Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves with the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Commitments of Traders (COT) tool can provide a comprehensive and highly configurable graphical representation of the CFTC's report on market open interest.

Build and test your trading strategies in a simulated environment with free pricing and analytics tools for CME Group markets. Choose from three ways to access exclusive, web-based tools developed by QuikStrike®.


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