CME Group Micro Gold, Silver, and Copper Monthly Update

Highlights

A resilient U.S. economy, as evidenced by higher-than-expected CPI figures and other strong indicators, has pushed the U.S. dollar and treasury yield higher.
Simultaneously, the hawkish Fed pause at its September meeting further strengthened market participant sentiment that rates would be higher for longer. All these factors pressured the Gold price to close out September at $1,866.10/oz., down 5.1% MoM.
Silver prices, pressured by macroeconomic factors like those affecting its yellow counterpart, have dropped by 9.5% MoM to end September at $22.450/oz., the largest monthly decline since February 2023.
The strengthening of the U.S. dollar and increase of global supply have reversed the Copper price gains achieved in the first half of September (gains driven in part by stronger Chinese industrial production and retail sales figures that suggested a stabilizing Chinese economy).
Copper prices eventually finished September at $3.7375/lb., down 2.2% MoM.
Micro Silver futures (SIL) YTD ADV of 10,496 contracts and Micro Copper futures (MHG) Q3 ADV of 4,578 contracts were both up ~36% on a YoY basis, highlighting a consistent level of liquidity that market participants can use to manage risk effectively.

MGC, SIL, and MHG price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)

*Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price multiplied by the contract notional in troy ounce (MGC and SIL) and pounds (MHG).

Options Heatmap (Change in OI from September 5 to September 29, 2023)

View current open interest and changes in volume and OI by strike, put or call, and expiration.

Key Economic Events in October/November 2023:

Key Economic Event	ET	GMT / BST	SGT / HKT
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI	Oct 2, 10.00 a.m.	Oct 2, 3.00 p.m.	Oct 2, 10.00 p.m.
U.S. Non Farm Payrolls	Oct 6, 8.30 a.m.	Oct 6, 1.30 p.m.	Oct 6, 8.30 p.m.
FOMC Minutes	Oct 11, 2.00 p.m.	Oct 11, 7.00 p.m.	Oct 12, 2.00 a.m.
U.S. Inflation Numbers	Oct 12, 8.30 a.m.	Oct 12, 1.30 p.m.	Oct 12, 8.30 p.m.
China Inflation Rate YoY	Oct 12, 9.30 p.m.	Oct 13, 2.30 a.m.	Oct 13, 9.30 a.m.
China Balance of Trade	Oct 12, 11.00 p.m.	Oct 13, 4.00 a.m.	Oct 13, 11.00 a.m.
China Industrial Production YoY	Oct 17, 10.00 p.m.	Oct 18, 3.00 a.m.	Oct 18, 10.00 a.m.
U.S. Core PCE Price Index	Oct 27, 8.30 a.m.	Oct 27, 1.30 p.m.	Oct 27, 8.30 p.m.
China NBS Manufacturing PMI	Oct 30, 9.30 p.m.	Oct 31, 1.30 a.m.	Oct 31, 9.30 a.m.
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI	Oct 31, 9.45 p.m.	Nov 1, 1.45 a.m.	Nov 1, 9.45 a.m.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI	Nov 1, 10.00 a.m.	Nov 1, 2.00 p.m.	Nov 1, 10.00 p.m.
U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision and Fed Press Conference	Nov 1, 2.00 p.m.	Nov 1, 6.00 p.m.	Nov 2, 2.00 a.m.
U.S. Non Farm Payrolls	Nov 3, 8.30 a.m.	Nov 3, 12.30 p.m.	Nov 3, 8.30 p.m.
China Balance of Trade	Nov 6, 10.00 p.m.	Nov 7, 3.00 a.m.	Nov 7, 11.00 a.m.
China Inflation Rate YoY	Nov 8, 8.30 p.m.	Nov 9, 1.30 a.m.	Nov 9, 9.30 a.m.
U.S. Inflation Numbers	Nov 14, 8.30 a.m.	Nov 14, 1.30 p.m.	Nov 14, 9.30 p.m.
China Industrial Production YoY	Nov 14, 9.00 p.m.	Nov 15, 2.00 a.m.	Nov 15, 10.00 a.m.
FOMC Minutes	Nov 22, 2.00 p.m.	Nov 22, 7.00 p.m.	Nov 23, 3.00 a.m.
China NBS Manufacturing PMI	Nov 29, 8.30 p.m.	Nov 30, 1.30 a.m.	Nov 30, 9.30 a.m.
U.S. Core PCE Price Index	Nov 30, 8.30 a.m.	Nov 30, 1.30 p.m.	Nov 30, 9.30 p.m.
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI	Nov 30, 8.45 p.m.	Dec 1, 1.45 a.m.	Dec 1, 9.45 a.m.

Source: CME Group, Quikstrike

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