• Softer CPI numbers and a weak U.S. dollar pushed gold towards $2,000/oz. in mid-July. The rally ended as the U.S. dollar rebounded and the Fed made hawkish comments about potential additional hikes after raising 25 basis points in the July FOMC meeting. The cooler core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index managed to support the gold price before closing July at $1,970.50/oz., up 2.1% MoM.
  • Silver has tracked its gold counterpart performance for the month. Strong industrial demand and limited supply offset the impact of a hawkish Fed outlook and a strong U.S. dollar, resulting in silver prices settling July at $24.97/oz., up 8.5% MoM.
  • A weaker U.S. dollar in the first half of July and the rising optimism around potential Chinese stimulus measures to support the property sector towards the end of the month have led to copper prices increasing slightly above $4/lb., up 6.6% MoM, which is its highest in more than a month.
  • SIL 2023 YTD ADV of 10,758 contracts is up 37% YoY with ADOI standing strong at 8,162 contracts, providing consistent liquidity for market participants to manage price risk efficiently.

MGC, SIL, and MHG price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)

*Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price multiplied by the contract notional in troy ounce (MGC and SIL) and pounds (MHG).

Options Heatmap (Change in OI from July 3 to July 31, 2023)

Key Economic Events in August/September 2023:

Key Economic Event




China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Jul 31, 9.45 p.m.

Aug 1, 1.45 a.m.

Aug 1, 9.45 a.m.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Aug 1, 10.00 a.m.

Aug 1, 3.00 p.m.

Aug 1, 10.00 p.m.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Aug 4, 8.30 a.m.

Aug 4, 1.30 p.m.

Aug 4, 8.30 p.m.

China Balance of Trade

Aug 7, 11.00 p.m.

Aug 8, 4.00 a.m.

Aug 8, 11.00 a.m.

U.S. Balance of Trade

Aug 8, 8.30 a.m.

Aug 8, 1.30 p.m.

Aug 8, 8.30 p.m.

China Inflation Rate YoY

Aug 8, 9.30 p.m.

Aug 9, 2.30 a.m.

Aug 9, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Inflation Numbers

Aug 10, 8.30 a.m.

Aug 10, 1.30 p.m.

Aug 10, 8.30 p.m.

China Industrial Production YoY

Aug 14, 10.00 p.m.

Aug 15, 3.00 a.m.

Aug 15, 10.00 a.m.

FOMC Minutes

Aug 16, 2.00 p.m.

Aug 16, 7.00 p.m.

Aug 17, 2.00 a.m.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Aug 30, 9.30 p.m.

Aug 31, 2.30 a.m.

Aug 31, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Core PCE Price Index

Aug 31, 8.30 a.m.

Aug 31, 1.30 p.m.

Aug 31, 8.30 p.m.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Aug 31, 9.45 p.m.

Sep 1, 2.45 a.m.

Sep 1, 9.45 a.m.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Sep 1, 8.30 a.m.

Sep 1, 1.30 p.m.

Sep 1, 8.30 p.m.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Sep 1, 10.00 a.m.

Sep 1, 3.00 p.m.

Sep 1, 10.00 p.m.

China Balance of Trade

Sep 6, 11.00 p.m.

Sep 7, 4.00 a.m.

Sep 7, 11.00 a.m.

China Inflation Rate YoY

Sep 8, 9.30 p.m.

Sep 9, 2.30 a.m.

Sep 9, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Inflation Numbers

Sep 13, 8.30 a.m.

Sep 13, 1.30 p.m.

Sep 13, 8.30 p.m.

China Industrial Production YoY

Sep 14, 10.00 p.m.

Sep 15, 3.00 a.m.

Sep 15, 10.00 a.m.

U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, and Fed Press Conference

Sep 20, 2.00 p.m.

Sep 20, 7.00 p.m.

Sep 21, 2.00 a.m.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Sep 28, 9.45 p.m.

Sep 29, 2.45 a.m.

Sep 29, 9.45 a.m.

U.S. Core PCE Price Index

Sep 29, 8.30 a.m.

Sep 29, 1.30 p.m.

Sep 29, 8.30 p.m.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Sep 29, 9.30 p.m.

Sep 30, 2.30 a.m.

Sep 30, 9.30 a.m.

Source: CME Group, Quikstrike

Useful resources

Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves with the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Commitments of Traders (COT) tool can provide a comprehensive and highly configurable graphical representation of the CFTC's report on market open interest.

Build and test your trading strategies in a simulated environment with free pricing and analytics tools for CME Group markets. Choose from three ways to access exclusive, web-based tools developed by QuikStrike®.

The data and output from this tool does not constitute investment advice and is not a personal recommendation from CME Group.  Nothing contained herein constitutes the solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options.  Any investment activities undertaken using this tool will be at the sole risk of the relevant investor.  CME Group expressly disclaims all liability for the use or interpretation (whether by visitor or by others) of information contained herein. Decisions based on this information are the sole responsibility of the relevant investor.  Any visitor to this page agrees to hold the CME Group and its affiliates and licensors harmless against any claims for damages arising from any decisions that the visitor makes based on such information.

Exchange traded derivatives and cleared over-the-counter (“OTC”) derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Exchange traded and OTC derivatives are leveraged instruments and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money initially deposited. This communication does not (within the meaning of any applicable legislation) constitute a Prospectus or a public offering of securities; nor is it a recommendation, offer, invitation or solicitation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

The content in this communication has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be construed as advice. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and you should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting on or relying on the information set out in this communication. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information within this communication as of the date of publication, CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. Additionally, all examples and information in this communication are used for explanation purposes only and should not be considered, investment advice, the results of actual market experience, or the promotion of any particular products or services.  All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc (“CME”), the Chicago Board of Trade, Inc. (“CBOT”), the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (“NYMEX”), and the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (“COMEX”) rulebooks or, as applicable, the respective Rulebooks of CME Group’s certain other subsidiary trading facilities. Current rules should be consulted in all cases including matters relevant to contract specifications.

CME Group does not represent that any material or information contained in this communication is appropriate for use or permitted in any jurisdiction or country where such use or distribution would be contrary to any applicable law or regulation. This communication has not been reviewed or approved by any regulatory authority and access shall be at the liability of the user.

In Australia, each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc. (ARBN 110 594 459), New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.

In Hong Kong, CME Group is authorised by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (the "SFC") to provide Automated Trading Services ("ATS") via its GLOBEX system, and its CME Clearing System under Part III of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (the "SFO").

In Japan, CME Inc. has a Foreign Clearing Organisation (FCO) license under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act of Japan.

In Singapore, CME Inc., CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX are regulated as a recognized market operator and CME Inc. is regulated as a recognized clearing house under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289) ("SFA"). Save as aforesaid, none of the CME Group entities are licensed to carry on regulated activities under the SFA or to provide financial advisory services under the Financial Advisers Act (Chapter 110) in Singapore.

None of CME Group entities are registered or licensed to provide, nor does it purport to provide, financial services of any kind in some jurisdictions, including, but not limited to, India, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, People’s Republic of China, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam and in any jurisdiction where CME Group is not authorized to do business or where such distribution would be contrary to the local laws and regulations.

You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the information contained herein. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this communication, you should obtain independent professional advice. CME is not licensed to carry on business in dealing or advising on futures contracts under the Securities and Futures Ordinance in Hong Kong.

In Japan, this communication is for distribution solely to certain qualified sophisticated investors as set forth in the Commodities Futures Act of Japan (Law No. 239 of 1950, as amended) and the related rules, as appropriate. Other than that, the information contained in this communication is not directed at any person in Japan and is not intended for marketing or soliciting Japanese customers to trade or use any specific CME products or services.

In the Republic of Korea, this communication is for distribution solely to “professional investors” (as defined in Article 9(5) of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act and related rules) in response to a request from such professional investors or through a licensed investment broker.

In the People’s Republic of China, this communication is provided to the reader only and shall not be copied or redistributed within the People’s Republic of China for any other purpose. No information contained in this communication constitutes or leads to an offer to provide or sell any financial service or product, a recommendation (express or implied) to take any action in respect of any financial product, or any investment advice or market forecast.

CME Group, the Globe Logo, CME, Globex, E-Mini, CME Direct, CME DataMine and Chicago Mercantile Exchange are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.  CBOT and the Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.  NYMEX and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.  COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc.

BrokerTec Americas LLC (“BAL”) is a registered broker-dealer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (www.FINRA.org), and is a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (www.SIPC.org). BAL does not provide services to private or retail customers.

Certain CME Group subsidiaries are authorised and regulated by regulatory authorities. Certain of those subsidiaries are required to retain records of telephone conversations and other electronic communications for a period of 5 to 7 years where required by certain regulation, copies of which are available on request (which may be subject to a fee). For further regulatory information please see www.cmegroup.com.

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2024 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.