• Softer CPI numbers and a weak U.S. dollar pushed gold towards $2,000/oz. in mid-July. The rally ended as the U.S. dollar rebounded and the Fed made hawkish comments about potential additional hikes after raising 25 basis points in the July FOMC meeting. The cooler core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index managed to support the gold price before closing July at $1,970.50/oz., up 2.1% MoM.
  • Silver has tracked its gold counterpart performance for the month. Strong industrial demand and limited supply offset the impact of a hawkish Fed outlook and a strong U.S. dollar, resulting in silver prices settling July at $24.97/oz., up 8.5% MoM.
  • A weaker U.S. dollar in the first half of July and the rising optimism around potential Chinese stimulus measures to support the property sector towards the end of the month have led to copper prices increasing slightly above $4/lb., up 6.6% MoM, which is its highest in more than a month.
  • SIL 2023 YTD ADV of 10,758 contracts is up 37% YoY with ADOI standing strong at 8,162 contracts, providing consistent liquidity for market participants to manage price risk efficiently.

MGC, SIL, and MHG price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)

*Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price multiplied by the contract notional in troy ounce (MGC and SIL) and pounds (MHG).

Options Heatmap (Change in OI from July 3 to July 31, 2023)

Key Economic Events in August/September 2023:

Key Economic Event

ET

GMT / BST

SGT / HKT

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Jul 31, 9.45 p.m.

Aug 1, 1.45 a.m.

Aug 1, 9.45 a.m.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Aug 1, 10.00 a.m.

Aug 1, 3.00 p.m.

Aug 1, 10.00 p.m.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Aug 4, 8.30 a.m.

Aug 4, 1.30 p.m.

Aug 4, 8.30 p.m.

China Balance of Trade

Aug 7, 11.00 p.m.

Aug 8, 4.00 a.m.

Aug 8, 11.00 a.m.

U.S. Balance of Trade

Aug 8, 8.30 a.m.

Aug 8, 1.30 p.m.

Aug 8, 8.30 p.m.

China Inflation Rate YoY

Aug 8, 9.30 p.m.

Aug 9, 2.30 a.m.

Aug 9, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Inflation Numbers

Aug 10, 8.30 a.m.

Aug 10, 1.30 p.m.

Aug 10, 8.30 p.m.

China Industrial Production YoY

Aug 14, 10.00 p.m.

Aug 15, 3.00 a.m.

Aug 15, 10.00 a.m.

FOMC Minutes

Aug 16, 2.00 p.m.

Aug 16, 7.00 p.m.

Aug 17, 2.00 a.m.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Aug 30, 9.30 p.m.

Aug 31, 2.30 a.m.

Aug 31, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Core PCE Price Index

Aug 31, 8.30 a.m.

Aug 31, 1.30 p.m.

Aug 31, 8.30 p.m.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Aug 31, 9.45 p.m.

Sep 1, 2.45 a.m.

Sep 1, 9.45 a.m.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Sep 1, 8.30 a.m.

Sep 1, 1.30 p.m.

Sep 1, 8.30 p.m.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Sep 1, 10.00 a.m.

Sep 1, 3.00 p.m.

Sep 1, 10.00 p.m.

China Balance of Trade

Sep 6, 11.00 p.m.

Sep 7, 4.00 a.m.

Sep 7, 11.00 a.m.

China Inflation Rate YoY

Sep 8, 9.30 p.m.

Sep 9, 2.30 a.m.

Sep 9, 9.30 a.m.

U.S. Inflation Numbers

Sep 13, 8.30 a.m.

Sep 13, 1.30 p.m.

Sep 13, 8.30 p.m.

China Industrial Production YoY

Sep 14, 10.00 p.m.

Sep 15, 3.00 a.m.

Sep 15, 10.00 a.m.

U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, and Fed Press Conference

Sep 20, 2.00 p.m.

Sep 20, 7.00 p.m.

Sep 21, 2.00 a.m.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Sep 28, 9.45 p.m.

Sep 29, 2.45 a.m.

Sep 29, 9.45 a.m.

U.S. Core PCE Price Index

Sep 29, 8.30 a.m.

Sep 29, 1.30 p.m.

Sep 29, 8.30 p.m.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Sep 29, 9.30 p.m.

Sep 30, 2.30 a.m.

Sep 30, 9.30 a.m.

Source: CME Group, Quikstrike

Useful resources

Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves with the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Commitments of Traders (COT) tool can provide a comprehensive and highly configurable graphical representation of the CFTC's report on market open interest.

Build and test your trading strategies in a simulated environment with free pricing and analytics tools for CME Group markets. Choose from three ways to access exclusive, web-based tools developed by QuikStrike®.


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